Australian employment in March was close to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) outlook. Total jobs rose 17.9k versus 20k expected by the RBA and consensus, while the unemployment rate stayed at 4.3%.<\/p>\n
Full-time employment increased by 52.5k and part-time employment fell by 34.6k after a rise in February. The participation rate slipped from 66.9% to 66.8%, helping keep unemployment unchanged.<\/p>\n
Hours worked rose despite the fall in part-time jobs, with full-time and part-time hours up 2.5% year on year in March. This compares with 0.9% year on year in December 2025.<\/p>\n
Labour conditions may face pressure in coming months due to developments in the Middle East. The Q1 CPI release on 29 April is a key input for the RBA\u2019s May rate decision and can affect Australian dollar expectations.<\/p>\n
RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser spoke in Washington, DC, at the Institute of International Finance Global Outlook Forum. He said Australia entered the \u201cIran shock\u201d running \u201cquite hot\u201d and described the challenge of explaining possible rate rises alongside higher petrol prices and weaker activity.<\/p>\n
The March employment data was largely a non-event, confirming the Reserve Bank of Australia’s outlook with an unemployment rate holding at 4.3%. This steadiness in the labour market simply shifts all focus to the upcoming inflation data. The market is now waiting for the next major catalyst before making a significant move.<\/p>\n
Our primary concern is the Q1 CPI release on April 29th, which will be heavily influenced by the recent “Iran shock” and its impact on oil prices. Brent crude has surged nearly 20% over the past six weeks to over $105 a barrel, a level not seen since late 2024. This energy price spike almost guarantees a hot inflation print, increasing the likelihood of an RBA rate hike.<\/p>\n
Given the high degree of uncertainty, we believe traders should consider buying volatility ahead of the CPI data. Options strategies like straddles on the AUD\/USD, which is currently in a tight range near 0.6550, could be effective. This positions for a significant price swing regardless of whether the inflation number surprises to the upside or downside.<\/p>\n
The RBA Deputy Governor’s comments signal a very hawkish stance, suggesting the market may be underpricing the probability of a May rate hike. We see value in positioning for higher short-term interest rates through instruments like interest rate swaps. The current market pricing implies only a 40% chance of a 25 basis point hike, which seems too low given the inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n
From our perspective in 2025, we looked back at the 2022-2023 period and saw how quickly energy shocks could force central banks to pivot aggressively. A similar dynamic appears to be unfolding now. The RBA’s main challenge is communicating the need for tighter policy when households are already feeling the pain of higher costs at the petrol pump.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
March jobs up 17.9k; unemployment steady 4.3%. Full-time gains offset part-time drop; CPI key for RBA.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45128","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45128","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45128"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45128\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45128"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45128"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45128"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}