{"id":44749,"date":"2026-04-13T05:57:26","date_gmt":"2026-04-13T05:57:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/44749\/"},"modified":"2026-04-13T05:57:26","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T05:57:26","slug":"week-ahead-all-eyes-on-oil-as-us-blocks-strait-of-hormuz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/week_ahead\/44749\/","title":{"rendered":"Week Ahead: All Eyes on Oil as US Blocks Strait of Hormuz"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/04\/1_oilSOH-1-1024x573.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-47424\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Crude remains the lead signal, Brent near $100 and WTI near $105 after a sharp surge.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Strait of Hormuz blockade drives risk-off and supports oil and USD.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>US\u2013Iran talks end in a deadlock, keeping the risk of escalation elevated.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Tuesday&#8217;s PPI is the key trigger for inflation and rate expectations.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>The new week begins on high alert as the weekend failed to produce a lasting ceasefire. The key catalyst is the start of a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, which has pushed crude oil sharply higher and triggered a defensive shift across global markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Markets remained concerned about whether the US-Iran ceasefire will hold as oil prices rose, with energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz remaining restricted <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/AV2iOCQE8w\">https:\/\/t.co\/AV2iOCQE8w<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/9DspZuVlkW\">pic.twitter.com\/9DspZuVlkW<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/2042263769284243813?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 9, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Brent is trading near $100, while WTI has climbed to around $105 after a volatile surge of nearly 11%. The bias remains firmly upward on any escalation, especially with the current strike pause set to expire Tuesday and no permanent framework in place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At these levels, oil is no longer just reacting to headlines. Markets are beginning to price in second-order effects such as higher transport costs and persistent inflation, limiting central banks\u2019 ability to ease. The risk is that elevated oil becomes structural rather than temporary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">US\u2013Iran Deadlock, Hormuz Tensions Lift Oil and USD<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Top-level talks between the US and Iran concluded without any progress, even after nearly 21 hours of intensive negotiations facilitated by Pakistan. US Vice President JD Vance stated that Washington had presented its final and most comprehensive offer, but Tehran rejected the proposal, resulting in a deadlock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Hormuz remains at near standstill after ceasefire <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/kIAQwdDCO1\">https:\/\/t.co\/kIAQwdDCO1<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/kIAQwdDCO1\">https:\/\/t.co\/kIAQwdDCO1<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/2042646379445584171?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 10, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Adding to tensions, US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that the US Navy would begin blockading the Strait of Hormuz, putting a fragile two-week ceasefire at risk. This escalation weighs on global risk sentiment and is seen supporting demand for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">President Trump said the US Navy would blockade the Strait of Hormuz and interdict every vessel in international waters that paid a toll to Iran after peace talks failed <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tpzNOS3iWf\">https:\/\/t.co\/tpzNOS3iWf<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/fHJJOt6KUT\">pic.twitter.com\/fHJJOt6KUT<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/2043383646707470834?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 12, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">USD near $99 on Iran deadlock and firm CPI<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, is holding in positive territory after trimming earlier gains, trading near 99.00 during Asian hours on Monday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">US inflation surged in March by the most in nearly four years as the war with Iran sent gasoline prices skyrocketing. The consumer price index rose 0.9% from February. <br><br>Michael McKee reports <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/j9G1MO6RKu\">https:\/\/t.co\/j9G1MO6RKu<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/x7YZVkM3Qe\">pic.twitter.com\/x7YZVkM3Qe<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BloombergTV\/status\/2042601707327140002?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 10, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The dollar strengthened on rising safe-haven demand after US\u2013Iran peace talks collapsed. US Vice President JD Vance confirmed the negotiations in Islamabad ended without a deal after 21 hours of discussions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Reuters that if inflation stays elevated, the Fed will keep rates unchanged until price stability is achieved. However, she noted that a rate cut could be considered if tensions with Iran ease quickly and oil prices fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">PPI: The Supply Chain\u2019s Inflation Reality Check<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Tuesday\u2019s Producer Price Index (PPI) release acts as a critical gauge for whether surging energy costs are officially hardening within the supply chain. With Brent Crude hovering above $100 due to the ongoing naval blockade, the market is hypersensitive to any signs that producers are passing these increased input costs down to the consumer level. A hot PPI print would likely cement a higher-for-longer interest rate path, fueling further US Dollar strength while squeezing profit margins for corporate equities already rattled by geopolitical tension.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Symbols to Watch<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>USDX | USOil | XAUUSD | SP500 | BTCUSD<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Events of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td>Date<\/td><td>Currency<\/td><td>Event<\/td><td>Forecast<\/td><td>Previous<\/td><td>Analyst Remarks<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>14 Apr<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>Core PPI m\/m<\/td><td>0.50%<\/td><td>0.50%<\/td><td>In-line print keeps Fed expectations steady; hotter print supports USDX; softer print weakens USDX.<br><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>16 Apr<\/td><td>AUD<\/td><td>Unemployment Rate<\/td><td>4.30%<\/td><td>4.30%<\/td><td>Hotter unemployment rate could weaken the Aussie Dollar and cause shift in policy tone.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>16 Apr<\/td><td>GBP<\/td><td>GDP m\/m<\/td><td>0.10%<\/td><td>0.00%<\/td><td>Slight GDP rebound may support GBP and growth sentiment.<br><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>For a full view of upcoming economic events, check out VT Markets\u2019 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/economic-calendar\/?utmsource=WMO\">Economic Calendar<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Movements Of The Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">USDX<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/04\/67266d20-6e9f-40bb-8f25-194872b34aed.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-47425\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The dollar has gapped up towards the $99 level as investors rotate towards safe havens.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Tuesday&#8217;s PPI data could be a key driver for the Dollar as higher PPI data could keep the Dollar strong.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">USOil<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/04\/8abb9be4-5fe3-4437-9efa-63f03102e6f6.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-47426\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Oil has gapped up above $100 level as Strait of Hormuz remain blocked.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices higher.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">XAUUSD<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/04\/f74517b0-dcde-44fc-b72e-004231d22689.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-47428\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Gold gapped down on Monday due to investors&#8217; profit-taking to cover margin calls in other assets.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Tuesday&#8217;s PPI could negatively affect gold prices if data surges higher than forecast.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">BTCUSD<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/04\/c788d3e8-01c3-41a9-ba4e-0f77228b6f58.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-47429\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>BTCUSD traded lower during the weekends as negotiations between US and Iran failed.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If Tuesday&#8217;s PPI data is higher than expected, it could push Bitcoin&#8217;s price lower.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">SP500<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/04\/27488cdc-7053-432a-9568-8e079a2d4de5.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-47427\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>SP500 gapped lower on the Monday open as investors seek risk-off assets.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If peace talks are not achieved in the near term, it could trigger equities sell off.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bottom Line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets enter the week in a geopolitical risk-off regime, driven by the Strait of Hormuz blockade and failed US\u2013Iran talks, pushing oil sharply higher and supporting the USD. Brent near $100 and WTI near $105 reflect not just headline risk, but growing pricing of persistent inflation pressure through energy and supply chains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The key macro link now is inflation pass-through: if upcoming PPI confirms rising input costs, it strengthens the case for a higher-for-longer Fed stance, further supporting the dollar while pressuring risk assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Create a live <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/?utmsource=WMO\">VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong><strong> today to access our platform features, including market insights and educational content.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>Traders FAQ<\/summary>\n<p><strong>Why are oil prices rising today<\/strong><strong>?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude oil prices are surging because the US has initiated a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. With Brent Crude trading near $100 and WTI climbing toward $105, the market is pricing in a massive supply shock. Since no permanent ceasefire was reached over the weekend, traders expect a significant &#8220;war premium&#8221; to remain embedded in energy costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What happened in the US<\/strong><strong>&#8211;<\/strong><strong>Iran peace talks in Islamabad<\/strong><strong>?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The high-level negotiations facilitated by Pakistan ended in a deadlock after 21 hours of intensive discussion. US Vice President JD Vance confirmed that Tehran rejected Washington\u2019s final proposal. This collapse in diplomacy has ended the fragile two-week ceasefire and shifted global sentiment back toward a defensive, risk-off posture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>How does the Strait of Hormuz blockade affect the US Dollar<\/strong><strong>?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The blockade is driving investors toward safe-haven assets, pushing the US Dollar Index (DXY) toward the 99.00 level. Beyond safe-haven demand, the blockade keeps oil prices high, which forces the Federal Reserve to maintain a higher-for-longer interest rate stance to combat inflation, further strengthening the USD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in 2026<\/strong><strong>?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Federal Reserve officials, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, have indicated that rates will remain unchanged if inflation stays elevated. While a rate cut could be considered if Middle East tensions ease and oil prices drop, the current blockade makes near-term policy easing unlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Why is the Tuesday PPI data important for the stock market<\/strong><strong>?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a critical gauge for supply chain inflation. With energy costs skyrocketing, investors are watching to see if producers pass these costs on to consumers. A high PPI print would confirm that inflation is becoming structural, likely hurting corporate profit margins and pressuring equity valuations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What is the impact of high oil prices on global inflation<\/strong><strong>?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Elevated oil prices act as a transmission channel for broader macro stress. Beyond immediate fuel costs, they lead to higher transport expenses and stickier inflation prints. This limits the ability of global central banks to provide liquidity or rate relief, increasing the risk of a global economic slowdown.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n<p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>Start trading now &#8211; Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US oil benchmark, kicked off the week with a strong bullish gap, surging around 11% as it eyes a move back toward the $100 level. The breakdown in US-Iran peace negotiations, coupled with the US move to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, is putting the already fragile ceasefire at risk\u2014supporting further upside in oil prices. | VT Markets<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":44742,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44749","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-week_ahead"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/04\/oilSOH-1-600x400.png","featured_image_src_square":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/04\/oilSOH-1-600x600.png","author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44749","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44749"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44749\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/44742"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44749"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44749"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44749"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}