Gold (XAU\/USD) held near $4,763 on Friday, up 0.01% and set for weekly gains of almost 2%. The US Dollar eased as talks between the US and Iran are due to start on Saturday in Pakistan.<\/p>\n
Risk appetite supported bullion, despite Israel\u2019s attacks on Lebanon and the risk to a two-week ceasefire linked to the US and Iran. Iran has not opened the Strait of Hormuz, and US and Iranian officials are travelling for the talks in Pakistan.<\/p>\n
US data showed March CPI rose 3.3% year on year, up from 2.4% in February. Core CPI increased from 2.5% to 2.6% year on year, below the 2.7% forecast.<\/p>\n
Market pricing points to the Fed funds rate staying in the 3.50%\u20133.75% range through 2026, according to Prime Market Terminal. University of Michigan sentiment fell from 53.3 to 47.6, while 12-month inflation expectations rose from 3.8% to 4.8%.<\/p>\n
The US Dollar Index (DXY) was down 0.13% at 98.66, near a four-week low. Gold faced resistance at $4,800; a drop below $4,750 may target $4,700 and the 20- and 100-day SMAs at $4,674\u2013$4,662, while $4,800 could reopen $4,857 and then $4,900.<\/p>\n
The immediate focus is the tug-of-war between a weakening US Dollar and sticky inflation keeping the Fed on hold. While the dollar’s slide near a four-week low at 98.66 provides a strong tailwind for gold, the recent 3.3% CPI reading has cemented expectations for interest rates to remain elevated. This creates significant uncertainty, making options strategies that benefit from volatility, like straddles, particularly attractive ahead of the weekend’s US-Iran talks.<\/p>\n
We see the potential for a sharp upward move if the negotiations in Pakistan falter or if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. History shows us that flare-ups in Mideast tensions, like those we saw back in 2020, can add a significant risk premium to gold prices almost overnight. With US consumer sentiment just reported at a record low of 47.6, underlying safe-haven demand remains robust, suggesting buying call options or call spreads targeting a break above $4,800 is a viable strategy.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, traders should not ignore the risk of a price drop if the talks are successful and a durable ceasefire is achieved. The stubborn 3.3% inflation is reminiscent of the persistent price pressures seen in 2023, which forced the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance longer than markets anticipated. Given gold’s recent failure to hold above the psychological $4,800 level, purchasing put options targeting the $4,700 handle is a way to position for a potential risk-on rally.<\/p>\n
Beyond the immediate geopolitical headlines, we must consider the consistent underlying demand from official sources. Recent data for the first quarter of 2026 indicates that central banks have continued the aggressive buying patterns established over the last few years, absorbing any significant dips in price. This institutional demand provides a strong floor and suggests that any sharp sell-offs toward the $4,660s could be short-lived.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Gold steadies near $4,763 as dollar softens ahead US-Iran talks; inflation data shapes Fed outlook, levels.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44687","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44687","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44687"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44687\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44687"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44687"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44687"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}