USD\/CAD rebounded to about 1.3833 on Friday from a two-week low of 1.3805, ending a four-day decline. The move came as the US Dollar firmed ahead of US\u2013Iran talks over the weekend in Pakistan on terms linked to a 10-point peace proposal.<\/p>\n
The US Dollar Index (DXY) was up 0.15% at about 98.95 at the time of writing. Earlier in the week, Iran delivered a 10-point proposal after agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and accept a two-week truce, with a permanent ceasefire under discussion.<\/p>\n
Markets are also awaiting US March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due at 12:30 GMT, which may affect expectations for Federal Reserve policy. In Canada, labour market data at 12:30 GMT is forecast to show 15K jobs added after an 83.9K drop in February, while unemployment is seen at 6.8% versus 6.7%.<\/p>\n
USD\/CAD traded near 1.3830, with the 20-day EMA flattening around 1.3824 after nearly a month of gains. RSI was 53.6, above 50, with support near 1.3800 and then 1.3752, while resistance sits at 1.3870 and 1.3967.<\/p>\n
The USD\/CAD pair is finding its footing near 1.3650 today, April 10, 2026, after a small dip earlier this week. The move comes as the US Dollar shows broad strength ahead of key inflation data. This price action suggests buyers are stepping in at technically important levels.<\/p>\n
The US Dollar Index is holding firm above 104.50, as we are all still digesting the Consumer Price Index report from two days ago. That data showed headline inflation at a stubborn 3.1% year-over-year, which was higher than the 2.9% markets were looking for. This has pushed back expectations for any Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.<\/p>\n
In Canada, last week’s labor report showed a healthy gain of nearly 40,000 jobs, which should be supportive for the loonie. However, this strength is being muted by the overpowering narrative of a resilient US economy and a cautious Fed. Oil prices, with WTI crude hovering near $85 per barrel, are providing a floor for the Canadian dollar but not a catalyst for a rally.<\/p>\n
We remember how much of 2025 was defined by the Bank of Canada and the Fed moving in lockstep on policy. The current environment feels different, as the Fed’s singular focus on inflation is creating a policy gap that is giving the US dollar a distinct advantage. This divergence is a key theme for us this quarter.<\/p>\n
With the US Producer Price Index data coming out later today, we believe implied volatility in near-term USD\/CAD options may be undervalued. Traders could look at buying straddles if they anticipate a significant price move in either direction following the release. This strategy profits from a sharp move, regardless of direction.<\/p>\n
For those with a directional bias to the upside, a bull call spread is a good way to express this view with managed risk. We see an opportunity in buying a May expiry call option with a 1.3700 strike and simultaneously selling one at the 1.3800 strike. This limits your upfront cost and defines your maximum potential gain.<\/p>\n
Key support is now the 50-day moving average around 1.3610. A decisive break below this level would change the current positive outlook, and we would consider purchasing puts to hedge long positions. Until then, the path of least resistance appears to be sideways to higher.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/CAD rebounded to 1.3833 as dollar firmed pre US\u2013Iran talks; CPI, Canada jobs await, key levels.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44634","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44634","targetHints":{"allow":["GET","POST","PUT","PATCH","DELETE"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44634"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44634\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44634"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44634"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44634"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}