Gold (XAU\/USD) rose to about $4,815 in early Asian trading on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump agreed to pause bombing Iran for two weeks. The move followed reports of a ceasefire arrangement involving Iran and Israel.<\/p>\n
Trump said on Truth Social late Tuesday that the two-week ceasefire depends on Iran agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. A White House official said Israel has also agreed to the ceasefire.<\/p>\n
Pakistan, described as a mediator between the US and Iran, asked Trump to approve a two-week ceasefire and extend a deadline linked to ending Iran\u2019s blockade of Gulf oil. The request came as tensions in the Iran conflict increased.<\/p>\n
An Iranian official said talks with the US will be held in Islamabad to finalise details within a maximum of 15 days. Iran said the meeting will start on Friday and could be extended if both sides agree.<\/p>\n
Oil prices have risen since the conflict intensified, raising supply concerns and adding to inflation pressure. Higher inflation can limit central banks\u2019 ability to cut rates, which can affect demand for non-interest-bearing gold.<\/p>\n
Markets are also watching the minutes from the Federal Reserve\u2019s March meeting, due on Wednesday.<\/p>\n
With gold near $4,815, this two-week ceasefire presents a clear opportunity for a pullback from its recent war-premium highs. We believe traders should consider short-term bearish positions on the metal, such as buying puts or establishing bear call spreads. The historic surge, which dwarfed the previous all-time highs seen back in 2024, was driven by a flight to safety that will likely unwind on this news.<\/p>\n
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which over 20% of the world’s total oil supply flows, should cause a sharp drop in crude prices. We saw WTI crude spike dramatically during the blockade, reminiscent of the supply shocks from early 2025. Derivative traders could look to short oil futures or buy puts on major energy ETFs to capitalize on this expected supply relief.<\/p>\n
We expect a significant crush in implied volatility across the board, as the market breathes a sigh of relief. The VIX index, which likely soared above the crisis level of 35 during the conflict, should fall sharply. Selling VIX futures or call options is a direct way to trade this normalization of risk perception.<\/p>\n
However, the ceasefire is explicitly temporary, with negotiations that could easily collapse within 15 days. This suggests that any drop in oil and gold prices offers a prime opportunity to buy cheaper, longer-dated protection for a potential re-escalation. We are looking at out-of-the-money call options on gold and oil with expirations in about one month to position for a snap-back in tensions.<\/p>\n
This de-escalation complicates the Federal Reserve’s next move, and today\u2019s minutes will be viewed through this new lens. We recall how stubbornly high energy prices in 2025 kept headline inflation above 4%, preventing rate cuts. A sustained drop in oil, should peace hold, could soften inflation expectations and be bullish for equity index futures.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Gold rises to $4,815 as Trump pauses Iran bombing, seeks Hormuz reopening; ceasefire talks may ease tensions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44376","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44376","targetHints":{"allow":["GET","POST","PUT","PATCH","DELETE"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44376"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44376\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44376"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44376"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44376"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}