Gold rose 0.63% on Tuesday as oil eased from day highs amid reports of stalled US-Iran talks, which Iranian media denied. Attention is on Donald Trump\u2019s deadline to reopen the Hormuz Strait at 8.00 p.m. Eastern Time, with uncertainty over a deal before any renewed US strikes.<\/p>\n
XAU\/USD traded at $4,678 after rebounding from $4,607, supported by a softer US Dollar. The US Dollar Index fell 0.17% to 99.82.<\/p>\n
Reports on the Middle East remained mixed, with the Tehran Times rejecting claims that diplomacy was cut off, while the Wall Street Journal said both sides are holding firm. Axios reported a ceasefire looked unlikely despite progress in the past 24 hours, and CNN said Israel\u2019s military is on standby for possible strikes.<\/p>\n
Fed officials spoke, including Austan Goolsbee and John Williams, with warnings about central bank independence and energy-driven inflation. Williams said headline inflation could stay elevated into mid-year and reach about 2.75% annually, while policy was described as appropriate.<\/p>\n
US Durable Goods Orders fell 1.4% in February versus a 0.5% expected drop, while core goods rose 0.8% month-on-month. New York Fed survey expectations showed one-year inflation at 3.4%, with longer-term expectations steady.<\/p>\n
Markets are not pricing Fed easing in 2026, with rates seen unchanged all year, and focus is on Fed speeches, FOMC minutes, growth, jobless claims, and inflation. Technically, support is the 100-day SMA at $4,644 and resistance the 20-day SMA at $4,731, with levels at $4,700, $4,600, $4,553, $4,500, and the 50-day SMA at $4,937.<\/p>\n
We see gold is holding firm, a situation reminiscent of this time in 2025 when tensions in the Hormuz Strait provided a strong bid for the metal. Today, the driver is less about an immediate geopolitical flare-up and more about persistent inflation, which keeps haven demand alive. While oil prices have stabilized, the underlying economic uncertainty is providing a solid floor for bullion.<\/p>\n
With the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) currently low, trading near 14.5, implied volatility in gold options is not as expensive as it was during the military posturing we saw in 2025. This presents an opportunity for traders to consider buying call options to position for a potential breakout above recent highs. The lower premium means less capital is at risk for a move driven by upcoming inflation data.<\/p>\n
Last year’s commentary from Fed officials proved prescient, as money markets were correct to price in no rate cuts for the first half of 2026. The latest CPI data, released in March 2026, showed headline inflation remains sticky at 3.2%, preventing the Fed from easing policy. This differs from the 2.75% energy-driven inflation projection from 2025, as today\u2019s inflation is more broad-based.<\/p>\n
Economic data is also painting a different picture than the contracting durable goods orders we analyzed in February 2025. The most recent report for February 2026 showed a surprising 1.4% increase, suggesting some sectors of the economy remain robust. This economic resilience, combined with inflation, reinforces the case for gold as a portfolio diversifier rather than just a pure safe-haven asset.<\/p>\n
From a technical standpoint, the key support level we are watching has shifted from the $4,600 area of 2025 to a new, stronger base around $4,820. In the coming weeks, we should use derivatives to protect long positions while watching for a challenge of the $4,950 resistance level. A sustained move above this could attract fresh momentum, similar to how the market reacted to geopolitical headlines a year ago.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Gold climbs as oil slips and Hormuz deadline looms; dollar weakens, Fed warns inflation risks; mixed signals.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44346","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44346","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44346"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44346\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44346"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44346"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44346"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}