TD Securities commodity strategists expect gold and silver to face more downside in the near term. They link this to the Middle East war keeping inflation expectations elevated and pushing back the timing of US Federal Reserve rate cuts.<\/p>\n
They report that higher energy, fertiliser, and chemical prices are feeding inflation expectations. This, in turn, may keep interest rates higher for longer and raise the opportunity cost of holding precious metals.<\/p>\n
They also point to reduced Middle East capital flows into the gold market as a further near-term headwind. They expect conditions to improve after the conflict ends, oil prices stabilise, and market expectations for Fed cuts return.<\/p>\n
They project that a weaker US dollar and lower rates could support gold later on. Under that scenario, they forecast gold returning above $5,000 in the latter part of 2026.<\/p>\n
The article notes it was produced with the help of an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.<\/p>\n
For the coming weeks, we see further weakness in both gold and silver as a correction continues. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East sustains high inflation expectations, making it hard for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates. With the latest March 2026 CPI data showing inflation holding at a stubborn 4.1%, the Fed has signaled it will remain on hold through the second quarter.<\/p>\n
This environment keeps the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals elevated, pushing capital towards assets that offer a return. We are seeing this play out as Brent crude oil hovers near $115 per barrel, directly impacting energy and transport costs. The reduced participation from Middle Eastern investors, who are focused on regional instability, is also removing a key source of buying pressure from the market.<\/p>\n
From a trading perspective, this points toward establishing bearish positions for the next several weeks. We should consider buying put options on gold and silver futures to profit from a potential drop in prices. Looking back, we saw a similar 8% pullback in the spring of 2025 when the market had to reprice delayed rate cuts, providing a clear historical parallel for the current situation.<\/p>\n
At the same time, the long-term outlook remains extremely bullish, with a potential for gold to exceed $5,000 once the conflict subsides and the Fed finally pivots. Therefore, a prudent strategy would be to pair short-term bearish trades with the purchase of long-dated call options, such as those expiring in late 2026. This allows us to navigate the expected downturn while being positioned for the significant rally projected to follow.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" TD Securities sees near-term gold, silver downside as war-driven inflation delays Fed cuts; later rebound possible.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44304","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44304","targetHints":{"allow":["GET","POST","PUT","PATCH","DELETE"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44304"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44304\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44304"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44304"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44304"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}