{"id":44245,"date":"2026-04-07T03:18:22","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T03:18:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/44245\/"},"modified":"2026-04-07T03:18:22","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T03:18:22","slug":"usd-jpy-hovered-around-159-60-as-weak-ism-figures-countered-geopolitical-demand-ahead-of-us-data-release","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/44245\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY hovered around 159.60 as weak ISM figures countered geopolitical demand, ahead of US data release"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY was little changed on Monday, up by less than 0.1% to about 159.60 ahead of US data. Since early April it has moved within a 150-pip range between 158.50 and 160.00, with a weekly high near 160.30.\n\nIn Japan, the Bank of Japan kept rates at 0.75% in March by an 8\u20131 vote, with Hajime Takata calling for 1.00%. Markets price roughly a 70% chance of a 25-basis-point rise at the 27\u201328 April meeting.\n\nThe IMF urged the BoJ to continue tightening, while new board member Toichiro Asada pointed to a data-led approach. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama referred to rising speculative activity in currency and crude oil markets.\n\nIn the US, the ISM Services PMI fell to 54 in March from 56.1 in February, below the 55 forecast. Employment dropped to 45.2, the lowest since December 2023, while prices paid rose to 70.7, the highest since October 2022, and new orders rose to 60.6, the strongest in 17 months.\n\nThe Fed is holding the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. On a 5-minute chart, price is near 159.63 around the 200-period EMA, with support at 159.63, 159.58, and 159.50, and resistance at 159.73\u2013159.76, then 159.90.\n\nWe recall that in April 2025, USD\/JPY was stuck in a tight range around 159.60, caught between a Bank of Japan expected to hike and US stagflation fears. The market showed clear indecision ahead of key data releases. This setup from last year provides an important contrast to the situation we face today.\n\nThe Bank of Japan did follow through on its hawkish signals, having raised its policy rate multiple times to the current 1.25%. This policy shift is the primary reason the pair is now trading significantly lower, near 154.50. Looking back, the 70% probability of a rate hike priced in last April was an accurate forecast of the BoJ&#8217;s new direction.\n\nOn the other side, the US stagflation concerns from last year&#8217;s weak employment and high price-paid numbers in the ISM report were not temporary. The Federal Reserve was forced to maintain a restrictive stance, with the federal funds rate currently at 4.00% to 4.25%. Inflation has remained stubborn, with the latest CPI report showing a 3.1% annual increase, well above the Fed&#8217;s target.\n\nFor derivative traders, this means the fundamental picture has changed from range consolidation to a clearer policy divergence trade. With the Fed holding firm and the BoJ still hiking cautiously, implied volatility in USD\/JPY options has increased. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) for equities, a broad market fear gauge, is elevated at 16, reflecting more uncertainty than the quiet period we saw last year.\n\nGiven this environment, we see value in strategies that benefit from sustained directional moves rather than the range-bound trades of 2025. Traders should consider purchasing long-dated put options on USD\/JPY to position for further yen strengthening if the BoJ signals more aggressive hikes. This provides a defined-risk way to bet on the continuation of the year-long trend.\n\nThe recent stabilization of crude oil prices around $85 a barrel has removed some of last year&#8217;s inflationary pressure, but the labor market remains a key focus. With US unemployment holding at a historically low 3.9%, wage growth could keep inflation sticky and force the Fed to remain hawkish. Therefore, we are closely watching upcoming payroll data for any signs of weakness that might alter the Fed&#8217;s stance.\n\nGiven the potential for sharp moves around central bank meetings, particularly the BoJ&#8217;s upcoming April 28th decision, using straddles could be an effective strategy. This allows traders to profit from a large price swing in either direction, capitalizing on the heightened volatility that was absent this time last year. It is a direct response to the market breaking out of its previous consolidation pattern.\n<p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>Start trading now &#8211; Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USD\/JPY steadied near 159.60 as BoJ hike bets and mixed US data shaped cautious trading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44245","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44245","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44245"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44245\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44245"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44245"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44245"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}