{"id":44237,"date":"2026-04-07T02:18:14","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T02:18:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/44237\/"},"modified":"2026-04-07T02:18:14","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T02:18:14","slug":"ceasefire-negotiations-buoyed-market-mood-nudging-the-dow-up-0-3-after-closure-ending-near-46500","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/44237\/","title":{"rendered":"Ceasefire negotiations buoyed market mood, nudging the Dow up 0.3% after closure, ending near 46,500"},"content":{"rendered":"US share indices rose on Monday after the Good Friday closure. The DJIA added 120 points (0.3%) to about 46,500 after reaching near 46,700, while the S&P 500 rose 0.4% and the Nasdaq gained 0.5%, following last week\u2019s rises of 3%, 3.4%, and 4.4%.\n\nMarkets reacted to March Nonfarm Payrolls data showing 178K jobs added versus 60K expected. Healthcare contributed 76K as Kaiser Permanente staff returned from strike action, unemployment dipped to 4.3%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.2% MoM with 3.5% YoY.\n\nFebruary payrolls were revised to a 133K loss from a previously reported 92K fall. CME FedWatch showed almost no chance of a Fed move at the 28\u201329 April meeting, and a 77.5% probability rates stay at 3.50%\u20133.75% through year-end.\n\nISM Services PMI eased to 54 in March from 56.1, below 55 expected, marking a 21st month of growth. Employment fell to 45.2 from 51.8, prices paid rose to 70.7 from 63, and new orders increased to 60.6 from 58.6.\n\nOil trading was volatile amid ceasefire reports involving a 45-day plan and talks on the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran rejected. WTI May rose 0.7% to above $112 a barrel and Brent rose 0.6% to above $109, while US warnings referenced possible strikes if the Strait is not reopened by Tuesday.\n\nLater this week, the BEA will release the third estimate of Q4 GDP and the PCE index on Thursday, followed by March CPI on Friday. February CPI was 2.4% YoY, and ISM manufacturing prices were at the highest level since June 2022.\n\nLooking back at the data from this time in 2025, we can see the clear signs of stagflation that were emerging. The services sector was slowing while its price component surged, driven by oil prices over $112 a barrel. This happened even as the market was rallying, largely ignoring the underlying economic friction.\n\nThat period of persistent inflation, fueled by the energy shock, ultimately forced the Federal Reserve to abandon its prolonged pause. We saw the Fed hike rates twice more in the second half of 2025 to curb those price pressures. This cooled the strong jobs market and caused the equity rally to stall out for the remainder of that year.\n\nToday, the situation has changed significantly, with WTI crude having settled back into the mid-$80s following a de-escalation in the Middle East. This has helped ease headline inflation, allowing the Fed to pause its tightening cycle with the upper bound of the federal funds rate now at 4.50%. The most recent March 2026 jobs report showed a more sustainable gain of 195,000 jobs, with unemployment ticking up slightly to 4.5%.\n\nGiven this backdrop, implied volatility has been crushed, with the VIX currently trading near 16. This complacency presents an opportunity for traders to purchase protection at a low cost. The recent calm in the markets may not last, especially with key inflation data on the horizon.\n\nWith the next Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due next week, buying puts on major indices like the SPY or QQQ could be a prudent move. Any upside inflation surprise could reignite fears of another Fed hike, causing a spike in volatility and a drop in equities. These relatively cheap options provide a cost-effective hedge against such an outcome.\n\nThere is also significant uncertainty priced into the bond market regarding the Fed’s next steps later this year. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a roughly 55% probability of a rate cut by December 2026, leaving considerable room for repricing. Establishing positions in SOFR futures or options on bond ETFs like TLT could capitalize on shifts in rate expectations following the upcoming FOMC meetings.\n

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US stocks climbed after holiday, fueled by strong March jobs data, easing Fed fears, volatile oil.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44237","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44237","targetHints":{"allow":["GET","POST","PUT","PATCH","DELETE"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44237"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44237\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44237"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44237"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44237"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}