{"id":44175,"date":"2026-04-06T18:18:42","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T18:18:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/44175\/"},"modified":"2026-04-06T18:18:42","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T18:18:42","slug":"despite-a-weaker-us-dollar-improved-sentiment-and-iran-ceasefire-hopes-keep-eur-usd-below-1-1570","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/44175\/","title":{"rendered":"Despite a weaker US dollar, improved sentiment and Iran ceasefire hopes keep EUR\/USD below 1.1570"},"content":{"rendered":"The Euro rose against the US Dollar on Monday as risk mood improved after reports of a possible ceasefire in the Iran war. EUR\/USD rebounded from 1.1505 but stayed below 1.1570, keeping last week\u2019s range in place.\n\nReports said the US and Iran received a plan for a 45-day ceasefire that could end fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Caution remained after US President Donald Trump said he would target Iranian civilian infrastructure and energy sites if Hormuz was not reopened before Tuesday at 8 PM Easter Time (00:00 GMT).\n\nIn US data, Nonfarm Payrolls showed a 178K rise in March, beating forecasts for 60K. With many markets shut for Easter Monday, attention turns to the US ISM Services PMI, expected to cool in March but still point to expansion.\n\nEUR\/USD traded in the mid-1.1500s with a neutral to negative short-term tone. The 4-hour RSI moved towards 50 and the MACD edged closer to its signal line.\n\nResistance sits near 1.1570, then 1.1630\u20131.1640, and 1.1667. Support is just above 1.1500, then 1.1445 and 1.1410.\n\nThe current situation traps EUR\/USD between a weaker dollar from easing geopolitical tensions and a stronger dollar from solid US economic data. We’re seeing this indecision reflected in one-week implied volatility for the pair, which has jumped to 8.5%, a level not seen since the fourth quarter of 2025. This suggests traders are bracing for a move but are unsure of the direction.\n\nThe main event this week is the Tuesday 8 PM Eastern Time deadline related to the potential Iran ceasefire. This binary event creates a clear opportunity for a volatility-based trade, as the market is likely to move sharply if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. WTI crude futures are already pricing in a potential $10 swing, showing how traders are positioned for a significant reaction.\n\nAdding to the dollar’s strength, the US ISM Services PMI released today came in at 57.2, beating the 56.5 expectation and reinforcing last Friday’s strong 178K payrolls report. This robust economic picture provides a strong floor for the dollar, limiting the upside for EUR\/USD even if a ceasefire is confirmed. The data supports the idea that the Federal Reserve has little reason to change its current stance.\n\nOn the other side of the pair, momentum for the euro remains weak, capping any significant rally. Last week’s flash estimate for Eurozone CPI came in at a subdued 1.9%, slightly missing forecasts and confirming that inflationary pressures are far more contained than in the US. This divergence in economic performance naturally keeps the pair from breaking higher.\n\nLooking back, we saw a similar dynamic during the brief Red Sea shipping scare in November 2025, where a sharp spike in short-term volatility was followed by a quick return to the established trading range once the immediate threat passed. This historical precedent suggests that any breakout from the Iran news may be short-lived. This favors strategies that can profit from a rise in volatility followed by a return to calmer markets.\n\nFor the coming weeks, selling options premium seems like a viable strategy if you believe the range will hold. An iron condor with strikes outside the 1.1410-1.1660 range could capitalize on the elevated volatility while profiting from continued choppy trading. This approach bets that neither the dovish ECB nor the hawkish Fed will force a major trend change just yet.\n\nAlternatively, for those expecting the Iran deadline to force a resolution, buying a short-dated straddle could be effective. This strategy would profit from a strong move in either direction, whether it’s a risk-on rally past 1.1600 on peace news or a risk-off slide below 1.1450 if the situation escalates. The key is to be positioned for the break rather than guessing its direction.\n

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Euro rises on ceasefire hopes; EUR\/USD rebounds from 1.1505 but below 1.1570 amid strong US jobs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44175","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44175","targetHints":{"allow":["GET","POST","PUT","PATCH","DELETE"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44175"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44175\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44175"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44175"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44175"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}