{"id":44151,"date":"2026-04-06T15:18:25","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T15:18:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/44151\/"},"modified":"2026-04-06T15:18:25","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T15:18:25","slug":"gold-nears-4700-as-the-dollar-weakens-but-further-gains-appear-constrained-during-the-european-session","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/44151\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold nears $4,700 as the dollar weakens, but further gains appear constrained during the European session"},"content":{"rendered":"Gold (XAU\/USD) rose to about $4,700 in early European trading on Monday after buying interest emerged near $4,600. Bloomberg, citing Axios, reported talks involving the US, Iran, and regional mediators on terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire.\n\nOil climbed to a nearly four-week high after US President Donald Trump said Iran\u2019s power plants and bridges could be targeted if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Tuesday. Tehran said transit could resume if part of the revenue is used to compensate Iran for war-related damages.\n\nAli Akbar Velayati warned the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea could be targeted, raising concerns about trade disruption. Friday\u2019s upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls report supported expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep rates higher for longer, which helped the US Dollar and weighed on gold.\n\nTraders are watching for a move below $4,600 to assess whether the rebound from $4,100, a four-month low in March, is fading. Focus later turns to the US ISM Services PMI, with thinner liquidity due to Easter Monday in many markets.\n\nTechnically, $4,600 matches the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March fall, while price remains below the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart. MACD is below its signal but both sit just above zero; RSI is 52, with resistance at $4,758, then $4,791 and $4,913, and support at $4,411 and then $4,300.\n\nWe see a clear tug-of-war between Middle East tensions pushing gold up and central bank policy pulling it down. A 45-day ceasefire could see prices fall sharply, while a confirmed closure of the Strait of Hormuz would likely cause a significant rally. This suggests derivative traders should consider strategies that profit from a large price swing, such as long straddles, with implied volatility on gold options now trading above 25 for the first time since late 2025.\n\nThe Federal Reserve remains a major headwind for gold, especially after last Friday&#8217;s strong jobs report and March&#8217;s CPI data showing inflation still sticky at 4.1%. With the market now pricing in a 65% chance of another rate hike to 6.00% by July, any sign of de-escalation in Iran will likely prompt traders to buy puts or establish bear call spreads. We remember from 2025&#8217;s perspective how aggressive rate hikes in 2022 eventually overshadowed initial geopolitical safe-haven bids, a pattern that could repeat itself.\n\nOn the other hand, the risk to global shipping lanes is very real and supports holding bullish positions like call options. With Brent crude holding stubbornly above $150 a barrel due to the Hormuz situation, sustained energy-driven inflation could force investors back into gold as a hedge. A threat to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would be a new escalation, making out-of-the-money call options with strike prices near the $4,900 resistance level an attractive high-risk, high-reward play.\n\nThe $4,600 level is the immediate line in the sand for derivative plays over the next few weeks. A decisive break below this point could trigger stop-losses and serve as a signal to buy puts targeting the $4,411 support level. Conversely, traders could sell cash-secured puts with a strike price near $4,300 to collect premium, betting that the March lows will hold as a floor.\n<p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>Start trading now &#8211; Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold rises near $4,700 as ceasefire talks, oil threats, and strong US jobs reshape rate outlook.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44151","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44151","targetHints":{"allow":["GET","POST","PUT","PATCH","DELETE"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44151"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44151\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44151"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44151"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44151"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}