{"id":44043,"date":"2026-04-06T06:16:52","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T06:16:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/44043\/"},"modified":"2026-04-06T06:16:52","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T06:16:52","slug":"amid-mediation-the-us-and-iran-weigh-a-45-day-ceasefire-though-agreement-within-48-hours-seems-unlikely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/44043\/","title":{"rendered":"Amid mediation, the US and Iran weigh a 45-day ceasefire, though agreement within 48 hours seems unlikely"},"content":{"rendered":"The US, Iran and regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire that could lead to an end of fighting, Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing Axios. The report said the chance of reaching a deal over the next 48 hours is low.\n\nUS President Donald Trump extended his deadline by 20 hours. He set a new deadline for Tuesday at 8:00pm EST.\n\nAt the time of press, WTI was down 0.95% on the day at $102.85.\n\n<h3>Ceasefire Talks And Near Term Oil Reaction<\/h3>\n\nWe are seeing a familiar pattern with the current Mideast peace talks. Looking back at a similar situation in 2025, we saw that even the remote possibility of a ceasefire caused WTI to dip below $103 a barrel. This precedent suggests that any credible sign of de-escalation will put immediate downward pressure on crude prices in the coming weeks.\n\nWith WTI currently trading around $95 a barrel as of April 2026, the market is already pricing in a significant geopolitical risk premium. The latest EIA report showed a surprise crude inventory build of 2.1 million barrels, a bearish signal that would amplify any price drop caused by a peace deal. A successful agreement would likely remove the risk premium on top of an already softening physical market.\n\n<h3>Options Positioning And Volatility Signals<\/h3>\n\nThe market&#8217;s nervousness is reflected in the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX), which is trading near 45, well above its historical average. This makes buying put options on WTI or Brent futures an attractive strategy to profit from a sudden price drop if a deal materializes. Selling out-of-the-money call spreads is another way to capitalize on falling prices while benefiting from the high implied volatility.\n\nHowever, we must also weigh the significant risk of talks collapsing, which could send prices surging back above $100 almost instantly. The failure of the 2025 talks ultimately led to a sharp rally in the following quarter. Therefore, maintaining some exposure through long-dated call options could serve as a crucial hedge against a sudden breakdown in negotiations.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n<p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>Start trading now &#8211; Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US, Iran and mediators discuss 45-day ceasefire; slim 48-hour odds as Trump extends deadline Tuesday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44043","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44043","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44043"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44043\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44043"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44043"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44043"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}