{"id":43781,"date":"2026-03-31T00:43:15","date_gmt":"2026-03-31T00:43:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/43781\/"},"modified":"2026-03-31T00:43:15","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T00:43:15","slug":"wti-crude-stays-above-100-swinging-between-98-and-101-after-trumps-iran-energy-threats-boost-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/43781\/","title":{"rendered":"WTI crude stays above $100, swinging between $98 and $101 after Trump\u2019s Iran energy threats boost prices"},"content":{"rendered":"WTI held above $100 per barrel on Monday, with a swing to near $101 and a dip below $98 before rebounding about 1.15% mid-session. Brent traded above $115.\n\nPrice moves followed posts from President Trump about \u201cserious discussions\u201d with a new regime in Tehran, then threats to target Iran\u2019s power plants, oil wells and Kharg Island if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. Iran\u2019s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said no talks have happened and none are planned.\n\n

Geopolitical Risk And Oil Price Reaction<\/h3>\nYemen\u2019s Houthi movement fired missiles at Israel, raising risks around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and it normally carries about 21% of global oil consumption; Goldman Sachs puts the risk premium at $14 to $18 per barrel.\n\nHormuz closures since early March are estimated to have removed 17.8 million barrels per day from normal flows, alongside Iraq force majeure on foreign-operated oilfields. OPEC+ has signalled no output rises before Q3 2026, while a 400 million barrel emergency release has not removed the deficit.\n\nThe EIA projects Brent above $95 near term, then about $80 in Q3 and around $70 by year-end if the conflict ends and Hormuz reopens; WTI rose about 48% in March. The Fed held rates at 3.50%\u20133.75% on 18 March, signalled one cut in 2026, while CME FedWatch shows no cuts for the rest of 2026 and an 80% chance of a hold in April.\n\nTrump set an April 6 deadline for Hormuz to reopen, after a 10-day extension. Kharg Island handles roughly 90% of Iran\u2019s oil exports; Goldman Sachs said prolonged closure could see Brent test the 2008 high near $147, while Wednesday\u2019s EIA report is expected to show a 1.2 million barrel draw after last week\u2019s build.\n\nWith WTI crude holding above $100 per barrel, volatility is the primary factor to trade around. We can see this reflected in the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX), which has been trading above 55, levels that are historically high and signal extreme market uncertainty. For derivative traders, this means option premiums are incredibly expensive, making outright purchases of calls or puts a costly bet.\n\nThe extreme headline risk from Washington and Tehran is creating a pronounced positive skew in the options market. This means call options, which bet on prices rising, are significantly more expensive than put options an equal distance from the current price, as the market fears a sudden upward spike more than a collapse. We last saw this kind of skew develop during the initial weeks of the conflict in Ukraine back in 2022, just before WTI surged toward $120.\n\n

Trading Approaches Under Elevated Volatility<\/h3>\nThe upcoming April 6 deadline is a classic binary event, forcing a difficult decision on how to position. A diplomatic breakthrough could erase the $14 to $18 war premium almost overnight, while an attack on Kharg Island could trigger a move toward the $115 level. Given the high cost of options, using vertical spreads like bull call spreads or bear put spreads allows for a directional view with a defined risk and lower upfront cost.\n\nOn the supply side, the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has taken a significant amount of oil off the market, a situation which strategic reserve releases have failed to fix. Looking back, we saw a similar, though less severe, supply shock in the third quarter of 2019 after attacks on Saudi facilities, which caused Brent to gap up nearly 20% in a single day. The current disruption is far more prolonged and significant, supporting the market\u2019s underlying strength.\n\nWe must also consider the macro-economic backdrop, as the Fed is essentially sidelined by this energy-driven inflation. With the CME FedWatch Tool showing a near-zero probability of a rate cut in 2026, high energy prices are fueling the stagflation narrative. The weak February jobs report from last month, showing only 92,000 jobs created, highlights the economic fragility that Powell is trying to manage.\n\nFor the immediate term, traders should watch the key technical levels as guides for intraday positioning. The daily chart shows strong support around the $95-$96 area, which could be a level to consider selling puts or establishing bullish positions if the market pulls back without a fundamental resolution to the conflict. A decisive close above the $101 mark would signal that the market is beginning to price in a failure of diplomacy ahead of the April 6 deadline.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

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Start trading now – Click here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

WTI topped $100 as Hormuz tensions, Trump-Iran threats, and disrupted flows lifted premiums; Brent stayed above $115.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43781","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43781","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43781"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43781\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43781"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43781"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43781"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}