{"id":43593,"date":"2026-03-27T18:45:27","date_gmt":"2026-03-27T18:45:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/43593\/"},"modified":"2026-03-27T18:45:27","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T18:45:27","slug":"dbs-analysts-say-conflict-driven-safe-haven-flows-and-higher-oil-prices-have-paused-the-dollars-wider-decline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/43593\/","title":{"rendered":"DBS analysts say conflict-driven safe-haven flows and higher oil prices have paused the dollar\u2019s wider decline"},"content":{"rendered":"DBS analysts Philip Wee and Chang Wei Liang argue the US dollar\u2019s broader downtrend has paused, supported by conflict-driven demand for safe assets and higher oil prices, while warning that doubts about Federal Reserve independence and US fiscal sustainability remain key risks.\n\nThey describe a temporary geopolitical support level for the dollar tied to \u201cOperation Fury\u201d and say elevated oil prices have delayed a \u201cUSD mutiny.\u201d\n\n

Allied Rift And Reserve Status<\/h3>\nThey note the US-Israel strikes were conducted without wider consultation and that some G7 allies have not provided naval support, citing France, Germany, and Italy, which they frame as a move away from the American security umbrella.\n\nThey link US isolation and renewed global inflation pressure to a potential Strait of Hormuz closure, arguing this has pushed market participants to reassess US Treasury bonds as a truly risk-free asset.\n\nThey add that once oil flows resume, capital may rotate toward currencies with stronger fundamentals; the article also notes it was produced with the help of an AI tool and reviewed by an editor.\n\nWe have seen the predicted war-driven haven demand play out in recent months, lifting the Dollar Index toward multi-year highs near 115 as Brent crude topped $140 a barrel in January, but that temporary geopolitical floor now appears to be weakening as the USD pulls back toward 110 with diplomacy cautiously reopening and supply concerns easing.\n\n

Positioning For A Dollar Reversal<\/h3>\nThe underlying structural risks identified earlier are becoming more visible in capital flows, with Treasury data for January 2026 showing a $50 billion net outflow from foreign official accounts\u2014the largest since the 2020 pandemic scare\u2014signaling growing investor reassessment of US debt amid fiscal sustainability concerns.\n\nThe unilateral nature of US actions in late 2025 has widened rifts among allies, and last week\u2019s G7 finance ministers\u2019 statement omitted any mention of coordinated policy support, a notable break from historical precedent that underscores a weakening of the dollar\u2019s standing as the unquestioned global reserve.\n\nGiven this setup, traders could consider positioning for a reversal of the dollar\u2019s recent strength, for example by buying out-of-the-money put options on the USD Index (DXY) with 3- to 6-month expirations as a defined-risk way to express a bearish view.\n\nOpportunities may also emerge in currencies with stronger fundamentals that were suppressed by the dollar rally, including call options on EUR\/USD alongside resilient Eurozone PMI data, and potentially shorting USD\/JPY via futures if a global risk-on turn drives broad USD weakness versus the yen.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

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Start trading now – Click here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

DBS: Dollar downtrend paused by \u201cOperation Fury\u201d safe-haven demand and oil, but Fed, fiscal doubts persist.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43593","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43593","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43593"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43593\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43593"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43593"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43593"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}