{"id":31621,"date":"2026-03-26T04:00:28","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T04:00:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/31621\/"},"modified":"2026-03-26T04:00:28","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T04:00:28","slug":"dbs-economists-byron-lam-and-daisy-sharma-forecast-chinas-first-quarter-gdp-growth-rising-to-4-7-from-4-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/31621\/","title":{"rendered":"DBS economists Byron Lam and Daisy Sharma forecast China\u2019s first-quarter GDP growth rising to 4.7% from 4.5%"},"content":{"rendered":"A China GDP Nowcast from DBS Group Research economists Byron Lam and Daisy Sharma estimates real GDP growth rose to 4.7% in 1Q 2026, from 4.5% in Q4 2025. The nowcast is described as an estimate based on available economic data and forecasts for the current quarter.\n\nJanuary to February releases indicate a solid start to 2026, with growth supported by strong industrial activity and external demand for Chinese goods. Consumption is described as broadly stable, while investment and credit remain weak.\n\n

China Growth And Markets<\/h3>\nAnnual GDP growth is forecast to ease to 4.5% in 2026, compared with 5.0% in 2025. Middle East tensions and higher oil prices are cited as downside risks, with Brent expected to average USD100 for the rest of the year and potentially cutting GDP by 0.5 percentage points.\n\nThe article states it was produced using an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.\n\nOur models show China’s first-quarter GDP growth likely improved to 4.7%, beating the 4.5% from the final quarter of 2025. This suggests a solid start to the year, backed by strong factory output and continued overseas demand. We should therefore consider short-term bullish strategies on indices sensitive to Chinese industrial strength, like the CSI 300 Index.\n\nThis outlook is supported by fresh statistics showing industrial production jumped 7.0% and exports rose 7.1% in the first two months of 2026. The latest Caixin Manufacturing PMI also confirmed this trend, holding in expansionary territory at 50.9. These figures suggest call options on major Chinese industrial and export-oriented companies may be well-positioned for the coming weeks.\n\n

Risks And Hedging Ideas<\/h3>\nHowever, we must recognize the persistent weakness in investment and credit, a theme carried over from 2025. Property investment, for example, contracted by another 9.0% year-over-year in January and February. This ongoing slump suggests bearish plays, such as buying puts on property developer ETFs, could serve as a valuable hedge.\n\nLooking further out, the full-year growth is expected to slow to 4.5%, which means any rally on the back of strong first-quarter data could fade. Historically, we have seen implied volatility on Hang Seng Index options rise ahead of official data releases. This pattern suggests that volatility-based strategies, like a long straddle, might be effective to capture a sharp price move in either direction.\n\nA major external risk to this forecast is the price of oil, with Brent crude averaging $100 presenting a downside threat that could shave 0.5% off GDP. This would pressure the Chinese yuan and hurt import-heavy sectors. Consequently, we should watch energy markets carefully and consider using options on currency pairs like USD\/CNH to protect against potential instability.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

\r\n\r\n

Start trading now – Click here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

DBS nowcast sees China\u2019s 1Q26 GDP growth at 4.7%, driven by industry and exports, risks persist.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31621","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31621","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31621"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31621\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31621"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31621"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31621"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}