{"id":31610,"date":"2026-03-26T02:00:23","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T02:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/31610\/"},"modified":"2026-03-26T02:00:23","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T02:00:23","slug":"societe-generales-kunal-kundu-says-indias-revised-gdp-series-implies-weaker-past-growth-and-demand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/31610\/","title":{"rendered":"Societe Generale\u2019s Kunal Kundu says India\u2019s revised GDP series implies weaker past growth and demand"},"content":{"rendered":"Societe Generale\u2019s Kunal Kundu said India\u2019s new GDP series shows weaker past growth and softer domestic demand than earlier data. The revised series also points to a lower level of overall activity.\n\nThe revision suggests real GDP growth was overstated by about 2 percentage points. It also indicates that real GDP and consumption were overstated in the earlier series.\n\n

New Series And Growth Reality<\/h3>\nThe new series aligns more closely with high-frequency indicators and labour market surveys. It also supports the view that the post-pandemic recovery has faced limits to growth.\n\nThe updated data shows a negative manufacturing sector deflator in several periods, including when inflation was rising. This points to weak domestic demand conditions across those spans.\n\nThe analysis refers to structural constraints and stress on household balance sheets. It also says the September 2025 GST rate cut offers limited support for overall demand.\n\nThe new GDP series confirms what we have been arguing for some time: the Indian economy’s recovery has hit a structural wall. With prior growth and domestic demand now shown to be significantly overstated, we must expect a major downward repricing of Indian assets. The market has been operating under a false narrative, and this correction will likely be swift.\n\n

Trade Ideas And Market Positioning<\/h3>\nGiven this fundamental reassessment, we should consider buying put options on broad market indices like the Nifty 50 for the coming weeks. The data’s revelation of weak manufacturing demand is supported by the latest Index of Industrial Production (IIP) figures from January 2026, which showed a disappointing 1.2% year-on-year growth. This indicates the underlying economic engine is sputtering far more than previously believed.\n\nWe should also anticipate a sharp rise in market volatility as investors digest the nearly 2 percentage point downward revision in historical growth. Buying India VIX futures or call options provides a direct way to profit from the coming uncertainty. Looking back, we saw a similar spike in the VIX during the growth scare in late 2025, and this official data confirmation could trigger an even stronger move.\n\nThe report’s focus on weak domestic demand and household stress signals a clear bearish stance on consumer-facing sectors. We should establish short positions, perhaps through put options on major auto and consumer discretionary stocks. The ineffectiveness of the September 2025 GST rate cut, which failed to meaningfully boost consumption in the fourth quarter of last year, was a clear early warning of this deeper problem.\n\nThis weaker economic outlook will inevitably weigh on the Indian Rupee as foreign capital re-evaluates its exposure. We anticipate further depreciation, especially as the USD\/INR pair has already broken above the 84.50 level this month. Going long on USD\/INR futures contracts is a logical strategy to hedge against, and profit from, potential capital outflows.\n\nThe Reserve Bank of India is now in a difficult position, as the latest CPI inflation data for February 2026 remains stubbornly high at 5.4%. This stagflationary mix of weak growth and persistent inflation kills any prospect of monetary easing in the near term. With no rate cuts on the horizon to support the market, the path of least resistance for equities is down.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

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Start trading now – Click here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

India\u2019s revised GDP series suggests past growth overstated, domestic demand weaker, overall activity lower, and recovery constrained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31610","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31610","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31610"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31610\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31610"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31610"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31610"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}