{"id":31459,"date":"2026-03-24T14:58:22","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T14:58:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/31459\/"},"modified":"2026-03-24T14:58:22","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T14:58:22","slug":"mufgs-lee-hardman-says-easing-middle-east-tensions-keep-the-dollar-pressured-with-the-index-sliding-below-100","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/31459\/","title":{"rendered":"MUFG\u2019s Lee Hardman says easing Middle East tensions keep the dollar pressured, with the index sliding below 100"},"content":{"rendered":"The US dollar stayed weak after a steep fall linked to easing tensions in the Middle East. The Dollar Index failed again to move above 100.00 and dropped to 98.880.\n\nPresident Trump delayed planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for at least five days to allow talks. Iran had previously threatened further attacks on Middle East energy sites.\n\n

Dollar Weakness And Middle East Risks<\/h3>\nMarket focus remains on whether energy flows can return to normal through the Strait of Hormuz. The route is described as effectively closed, which could raise the risk of an energy price shock if it continues for weeks or months.\n\nForeign exchange markets may remain volatile while conflict and supply disruption persist. Volatility has increased more in emerging market currencies than in G10.\n\nJPMorgan\u2019s one-month EM FX volatility gauge is at its highest level since last April, following President Trump\u2019s \u201cLiberation Day\u201d tariff announcements. G10 FX volatility remains well below last April\u2019s levels.\n\nThe US Dollar is under pressure again, and we remember a similar situation last year following a brief de-escalation in the Middle East. Back then, the dollar index fell sharply toward 98.88 after failing to clear the 100.00 level. Today, with the index currently trading much higher around 104.35, the lessons from that 2025 sell-off are critical for our positioning.\n\n

Positioning And Hedging Considerations<\/h3>\nLast year, President Trump\u2019s decision to pause military action against Iran temporarily unwound the dollar’s risk premium. We are seeing a similar premium build now due to ongoing supply chain concerns and diplomatic friction in Asia. Any sudden positive development could trigger a rapid dollar sell-off, just as it did in 2025.\n\nWhat matters most, as it did then, is the risk to energy supplies, which was centered on the Strait of Hormuz in 2025. While that specific issue was resolved, recent disruptions in other key shipping lanes have already pushed Brent crude up 4% this month to over $91 a barrel. This reminds us that a negative energy price shock for the global economy is an ever-present risk.\n\nWe should expect foreign exchange markets to remain volatile, meaning derivatives can offer essential protection. We saw last year how JPMorgan\u2019s measure of emerging market FX volatility spiked much higher than G10 volatility during that crisis. Traders should consider buying options on EM currencies, as they are likely to overreact to geopolitical news compared to the majors.\n\nWhile G10 FX volatility is still below the peaks seen after the \u201cLiberation Day\u201d tariff announcements of last April, it is creeping higher. Given the dollar’s current strength, purchasing out-of-the-money put options on the dollar index could be a cost-effective hedge. This prepares portfolios for a sharp reversal if geopolitical tensions were to ease unexpectedly.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

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Start trading now – Click here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dollar slides as Middle East tensions ease; Trump delays Iran strikes, while energy fears fuel volatile FX markets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31459","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31459","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31459"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31459\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31459"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31459"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31459"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}