{"id":31415,"date":"2026-03-24T05:58:39","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T05:58:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/31415\/"},"modified":"2026-03-24T05:58:39","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T05:58:39","slug":"japans-core-cpi-excluding-fresh-food-rose-1-6-year-on-year-in-february-missing-the-1-7-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/31415\/","title":{"rendered":"Japan\u2019s core CPI excluding fresh food rose 1.6% year-on-year in February, missing the 1.7% forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"Japan\u2019s national CPI excluding fresh food rose 1.6% year on year in February. This was below the 1.7% forecast.\n\nThe reading shows inflation excluding fresh food eased compared with expectations. The data point focuses on prices excluding fresh food items.\n\n<h3>Implications For Bank Of Japan Policy<\/h3>\nThis lower-than-expected inflation reading reduces pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again soon. We should now reconsider the market consensus for a second rate hike by mid-year. The data suggests underlying price pressures are not as strong as previously thought.\n\nThe most direct impact will be on the yen, which is likely to weaken further against the dollar. With the U.S. Federal Reserve holding rates firm around 3.5% through the end of 2025, the interest rate gap remains significant. This makes buying USD\/JPY call options for the coming weeks a logical strategy, targeting a move above the 155 level.\n\nWe saw this play out last year after the Bank of Japan&#8217;s first small rate hike in November 2025. The market priced in a quick follow-up, but sluggish wage growth data from January, which came in at just 1.9%, already hinted that the central bank would have to remain patient. This CPI miss confirms that cautious stance.\n\nFor equity traders, a weaker yen and a patient central bank are supportive of Japanese stocks, especially exporters. The Nikkei 225 has already gained over 8% since the start of the year, recently breaking through the 42,000 barrier. We should consider long positions in Nikkei futures to benefit from this continued tailwind.\n\n<h3>Volatility And Positioning Considerations<\/h3>\nThis situation feels similar to what we experienced back in 2024, when traders repeatedly tried to front-run a policy shift only for the BoJ to delay based on soft data. Given this, implied volatility on the yen may now decrease as the chance of a surprise rate hike has diminished. Selling some near-term volatility in USD\/JPY could therefore be profitable.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n<p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>Start trading now &#8211; Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Japan\u2019s core CPI excluding fresh food rose 1.6% in February, slightly under the 1.7% forecast.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31415","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31415","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31415"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31415\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31415"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31415"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31415"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}