{"id":31332,"date":"2026-03-23T10:59:47","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T10:59:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/31332\/"},"modified":"2026-03-23T10:59:47","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T10:59:47","slug":"societe-generales-macro-team-says-march-flash-pmis-will-gauge-oil-shock-impacts-on-eurozone-activity-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/31332\/","title":{"rendered":"Societe Generale\u2019s macro team says March flash PMIs will gauge oil shock impacts on eurozone activity, prices"},"content":{"rendered":"March flash PMIs will be used to judge how the recent oil shock is affecting euro area activity and prices. The focus is on whether prices rise more than growth slows, as this could support the case for earlier ECB rate rises.\n\nBrent crude ended last week at about $110 per barrel, below its $128 peak in March 2022 after Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine. Spot prices for refined products differ, with jet fuel and diesel now above their 2022 peaks, and jet fuel above by a wide margin.\n\n

Comparing The 2022 Inflation Shock<\/h3>\nIn March 2022, the activity index barely moved, while the prices index rose despite already being very high. The current situation is compared with that episode to assess the balance between growth and inflation pressures.\n\nThe expectation is for only a limited fall in the activity index this time. Price components of the PMIs will be watched closely to see how strong the price shock is relative to growth.\n\nThe upcoming flash PMIs this week are the most critical data point for us. We are focused on whether the recent oil shock is hitting prices harder than it is hurting economic activity. A report showing resilient activity but sharply rising price pressures would confirm the ECB’s fears and likely trigger earlier interest rate hikes.\n\nWith refined products like diesel and jet fuel now trading above their 2022 peaks, inflationary pressures are undeniable. This follows February’s flash Eurozone inflation data which came in hotter than expected at 3.1%, keeping the pressure on the central bank. We expect the PMI activity index to show only a small dip, similar to what we saw back in 2022 from our perspective in 2025, placing all the emphasis on the prices sub-component.\n\n

Trading Implications And Positioning<\/h3>\nGiven this, traders should consider positioning for a more aggressive ECB. This could involve using EURIBOR or \u20acSTR futures to bet on higher short-term rates, as the market is now pricing in over a 70% chance of a rate hike by the July meeting. The uncertainty leading into the announcement also makes options strategies attractive.\n\nThe VSTOXX volatility index has already risen to over 23, reflecting the market’s nervousness ahead of the PMI release. Buying straddles or strangles on the Euro Stoxx 50 index could be an effective way to profit from a large market move, regardless of the direction. A surprisingly strong price index reading would almost certainly strengthen the Euro.\n\nTherefore, we are also looking at buying call options on the EUR\/USD pair. This provides a way to gain from a potential hawkish surprise that would send the common currency higher. Conversely, European equities may face headwinds from the combination of high inflation and the prospect of tighter monetary policy.\n\nThis environment suggests a cautious stance on stocks, and buying put options on major European indices could serve as a hedge against a negative market reaction. We are particularly wary of transportation and airline stocks, which are directly exposed to the record-high cost of fuel.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

\r\n\r\n

Start trading now – Click here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

March eurozone flash PMIs gauge oil-shock impact, weighing activity slowdown against price surge and earlier ECB hikes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31332","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31332","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31332"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31332\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31332"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31332"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31332"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}