{"id":31195,"date":"2026-03-20T07:59:09","date_gmt":"2026-03-20T07:59:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/31195\/"},"modified":"2026-03-20T07:59:09","modified_gmt":"2026-03-20T07:59:09","slug":"with-february-joblessness-rising-and-china-holding-rates-the-australian-dollar-slides-against-the-us-dollar-near-0-7080","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/31195\/","title":{"rendered":"With February joblessness rising and China holding rates, the Australian dollar slides against the US dollar near 0.7080"},"content":{"rendered":"AUD\/USD traded lower near 0.7080 in Asian trading on Friday. The Australian Dollar weakened after Australia\u2019s unemployment rate rose in February. \n\nAustralian Bureau of Statistics data showed the unemployment rate increased to 4.3% in February from 4.1% in January. The result was above the market forecast of 4.1%. \n\n

Australian Labor Data Weakens The Aussie<\/h3>\nThe weaker labour data reduced expectations for Reserve Bank of Australia rate rises. Money markets cut the probability of a May 2026 rate hike to 57% from 61%. \n\nChina\u2019s central bank kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged on Friday. The one-year Loan Prime Rate stayed at 3.00% and the five-year rate held at 3.50%. \n\nThe US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged after its March meeting. The target range remained 3.50% to 3.75%. \n\nThe Fed\u2019s median dot plot still pointed to one 25-basis-point cut later in 2026. Some officials projected no cuts this year. \n\n

Fed Policy And Energy Shock Support The Dollar<\/h3>\nFed Chair Jerome Powell said the war in Iran has created an \u201cenergy shock\u201d and increased uncertainty. He said this makes future policy decisions harder.\n\nWith the Australian unemployment rate unexpectedly climbing to 4.3%, we see a clear signal of a softening local economy. This makes the Reserve Bank of Australia less likely to pursue the interest rate hike that markets were pricing in for May. This divergence between expectations and reality creates an opportunity against the Aussie dollar.\n\nThis economic weakness is reflected elsewhere, with the latest Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index for March falling to 79.5, its third straight monthly decline. Looking back at 2025, we saw how the RBA stayed on the sidelines for months waiting for clear data, and this jobs report is a significant reason for them to remain cautious. The market is right to reduce the probability of a rate hike, and this sentiment will likely weigh on the AUD in the coming weeks.\n\nIn contrast, the US Federal Reserve is facing a different problem, which supports a stronger dollar. The latest US CPI data for February showed core inflation holding firm at 3.8% year-over-year, well above the Fed’s target and complicating their plan for a rate cut. The Fed’s signal that some officials now expect no cuts at all in 2026 is a hawkish turn that we must take seriously.\n\nThe energy shock from the ongoing conflict in Iran is pouring fuel on this inflationary fire, with WTI crude oil prices now trading consistently above $105 a barrel. This situation forces the Fed’s hand, making them less likely to cut rates while high energy costs act as a tax on global growth. This environment typically favors the US dollar as a safe haven and hurts commodity-linked currencies like the AUD.\n\nGiven this setup, derivative traders should consider strategies that benefit from a falling AUD\/USD. We believe buying AUD\/USD put options with expirations in the next four to six weeks offers a direct way to position for further downside. Alternatively, a put spread could be used to lower the upfront cost while defining the risk and potential reward.\n\nThis feels similar to the market jitters we experienced in late 2025 when an initial energy price spike caused a sharp, albeit brief, flight to quality. Volatility in the currency markets has picked up, with the Cboe FX Volatility Index (FXVIX) climbing 15% in the last month alone. This suggests that option premiums are rising, making defined-risk strategies even more prudent.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

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Start trading now – Click here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

AUD\/USD slips near 0.7080 as Australia unemployment rises; RBA hike bets ease; Fed holds rates, cites uncertainty.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31195","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31195","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31195"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31195\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31195"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31195"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31195"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}