{"id":31071,"date":"2026-03-19T04:58:28","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T04:58:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/31071\/"},"modified":"2026-03-19T04:58:28","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T04:58:28","slug":"mufg-analyst-warns-iran-conflict-and-hormuz-closure-may-lift-usd-vnd-above-27000-in-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/31071\/","title":{"rendered":"MUFG analyst warns Iran conflict and Hormuz closure may lift USD\/VND above 27,000 in 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"MUFG said a prolonged Iran conflict and an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lift USD\/VND above 27,000 in 2026. Its base case forecasts are 26,300 by March 2026 and 26,600 by December 2026.\n\nThe scenario for USD\/VND above 27,000 assumes Brent crude is around US$100\/bbl. The base case assumes de-escalation after March 2026 and oil prices easing back towards pre-conflict levels over time.\n\n<h3>Upside Scenario For Usd Vnd<\/h3>\nIn a downside scenario, MUFG set out USD\/VND at 27,700 or higher if oil holds at US$120\/bbl and energy shortages occur. The report linked the currency move to energy shocks and stagflation risks.\n\nMUFG described Vietnam as less exposed than India and the Philippines within Asia ex-Japan. It also said energy shortages could still affect Vietnam through weaker manufacturing activity and slower global growth.\n\nWith Brent crude futures holding firm above $105 per barrel, the base case scenario for USD\/VND is already under pressure. The spot rate has breached the 26,500 level this week, far exceeding the expected 26,300 for the end of this month. We believe this reflects a market pricing in prolonged conflict in the Middle East, making a simple de-escalation seem unlikely.\n\nIn the coming weeks, we should consider strategies that benefit from a rising USD\/VND exchange rate and increased volatility. This includes looking at USD call options or VND put options with strike prices around 27,000 for the second quarter. Non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) also offer a way to lock in a favorable rate now, anticipating further dong weakness.\n\n<h3>Strategy And Tail Risk Monitoring<\/h3>\nThis situation feels similar to the pressures we saw back in 2022 when the conflict in Ukraine began and energy prices soared. Vietnam&#8217;s February import data already showed a 15% year-on-year jump in its energy bill, and headline inflation has ticked up to 4.8%. While Vietnam is more resilient than its peers, this stagflationary pressure will weigh on the currency.\n\nThe key tail risk to monitor is a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could push oil towards the $120 per barrel mark. In that scenario, a move toward 27,700 for USD\/VND becomes highly probable. We should model these outcomes as the risk of a sustained energy shock appears to be growing.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n<p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>Start trading now &#8211; Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>MUFG warns prolonged Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure could push USD\/VND above 27,000 in 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31071","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31071","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31071"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31071\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31071"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31071"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31071"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}