{"id":30992,"date":"2026-03-18T10:59:37","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T10:59:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/30992\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T10:59:37","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T10:59:37","slug":"standard-chartereds-christopher-graham-expects-unchanged-boe-rates-with-two-members-favouring-a-25-bps-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/30992\/","title":{"rendered":"Standard Chartered\u2019s Christopher Graham expects unchanged BoE rates, with two members favouring a 25 bps cut"},"content":{"rendered":"Standard Chartered expects the Bank of England to keep rates unchanged at its 19 March meeting. It forecasts a 7\u20132 vote split, with two members likely supporting a 25 bps cut.\n\nThe bank anticipates the BoE will treat any near-term rise in energy prices as temporary. The meeting minutes are expected to set out how each Monetary Policy Committee member is weighing risks linked to the Middle East conflict.\n\n

Outlook For Policy Rates<\/h3>\nThe note points to a weaker case for further rate rises. It also refers to some members viewing current rates as restrictive.\n\nUK labour market conditions are described as softer, with unemployment rising steadily since mid-2022. Wage growth has slowed since mid-2023, and the next data release is due on 19 March, before the BoE decision.\n\nStandard Chartered still forecasts more easing, with a terminal rate of 3.00%. Its base case is one cut per quarter from Q2, but it says the timetable is uncertain.\n\nIt adds that easing could proceed if hostilities ease and energy prices fall. It also warns that a prolonged energy price spike could delay the next cut into H2 or 2027.\n\n

Implications For Traders<\/h3>\nLooking back at this time last year, in March 2025, we recall the Bank of England holding rates with that 7-2 vote split. The anticipated easing cycle did begin later that year, but now in March 2026, the path forward is once again uncertain. This indecision creates opportunities for traders in interest rate markets.\n\nThe core conflict for the Bank remains unchanged, balancing sticky inflation against a slowing economy. With the latest Consumer Price Index data from February 2026 showing inflation at a persistent 2.8%, hawks on the committee will be reluctant to cut further. Doves, however, will stress the downside risks to growth, creating a clear tension that will influence derivative pricing.\n\nThe softening UK labour market we observed throughout 2025 has continued its trajectory. The unemployment rate has now ticked up to 4.9%, and wage growth has cooled to 3.5%, offering little real-terms increase for households. This backdrop strengthens the argument for further rate cuts, a view that can be expressed through options on SONIA futures.\n\nGeopolitical risks and energy prices remain a significant wild card, just as they were a year ago. We remember the lessons from the 2022 energy shock, and with Brent crude prices hovering near $90 a barrel, the Bank will be cautious about any move that could reignite inflation. This elevated uncertainty suggests options strategies that profit from volatility, like straddles, could prove useful.\n\nGiven these cross-currents, we believe the Bank of England will likely hold rates steady again at its meeting tomorrow, but the probability of a cut in the second quarter is being underestimated. The conflicting data supports positioning for a steeper yield curve, as short-term rate expectations could fall sharply if growth data weakens further. Current market pricing of only 40 basis points in cuts by year-end seems too conservative and vulnerable to a dovish shift.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

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Start trading now – Click here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Standard Chartered expects BoE to hold rates, split 7\u20132; easing from Q2, terminal 3.00% projected.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30992","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30992","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30992"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30992\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30992"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30992"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30992"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}