{"id":30915,"date":"2026-03-17T17:59:05","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T17:59:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/30915\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T17:59:05","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T17:59:05","slug":"prior-to-ecb-and-snb-decisions-traders-cut-chf-longs-lifting-eur-chf-despite-weak-eurozone-sentiment-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/30915\/","title":{"rendered":"Prior to ECB and SNB decisions, traders cut CHF longs, lifting EUR\/CHF despite weak Eurozone sentiment data"},"content":{"rendered":"EUR\/CHF rose on Tuesday, trading near 0.9069 after reversing earlier losses. The pair had briefly dropped below 0.9000 earlier this month amid safe-haven demand linked to the US-Israel and Iran conflict.\n\nThe move higher was linked to traders reducing long Swiss Franc positions rather than new economic drivers. The Swiss National Bank has indicated it may intervene in FX markets, adding to caution about further CHF strength.\n\n

Eurozone Sentiment Turns Lower<\/h3>\nEurozone sentiment data weakened in March. The ZEW Economic Sentiment index fell to -8.5 from 39.4, below the 24 forecast, while Germany\u2019s reading dropped to -0.5 from 58.3 versus expectations of 38.7.\n\nSwiss data also softened, with Producer and Import Prices down 0.3% month-on-month in February after a 0.2% fall in January. The annual rate moved to -2.7% from -2.2%.\n\nFocus shifts to Thursday policy decisions from the ECB and SNB, with rates expected to remain unchanged. Forward guidance is in focus as oil prices rose amid Strait of Hormuz disruption concerns.\n\nMarkets are pricing a possible ECB rate rise by July. The SNB is expected to keep rates unchanged through 2026.\n\n

Positioning Shifts Drive The Cross<\/h3>\nWe are seeing traders move out of the Swiss Franc, pushing the EUR\/CHF cross back above the 0.9050 level. This seems to be a strategic unwinding of long CHF positions that were built up during the geopolitical tensions we saw flare up last year. The market is getting nervous about holding too much of a currency whose central bank actively dislikes strength.\n\nThe Swiss National Bank’s shadow looms large over the franc, as it has for over a decade. We remember their dramatic actions back between 2011 and 2015, and the threat of intervention to weaken an overvalued franc is a credible one. This history is likely encouraging many to take profits now rather than fight a central bank with a clear objective.\n\nThe policy divergence between the central banks is becoming much clearer and is the main driver for our positioning. Recent data shows Eurozone inflation stubbornly holding around 2.5%, creating pressure on the European Central Bank to remain firm. Meanwhile, Swiss inflation is well-contained at 1.4%, giving the SNB no reason to consider tightening policy.\n\nThis inflation gap is worsened by energy costs, with Brent crude futures consistently trading over $85 a barrel, a direct result of the ongoing shipping disruptions. For the Eurozone, this means higher imported inflation and a headache for the ECB. For Switzerland, the strong franc acts as a natural buffer, making these same energy imports cheaper in local terms.\n\nGiven the upcoming central bank announcements, we are looking at options to trade the expected volatility. Implied volatility for EUR\/CHF options has ticked up, suggesting that buying straddles could be a prudent way to profit from a significant price move, regardless of the direction. This protects us from being on the wrong side of any surprise forward guidance from either Frankfurt or Zurich.\n\nFor those with a directional view, the fundamental picture favors a higher EUR\/CHF exchange rate. The widening interest rate differential between a potentially more hawkish ECB and a steadfast SNB supports Euro strength. We are therefore considering building long positions through futures contracts, anticipating the cross will test higher levels in the coming weeks.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

\r\n\r\n

Start trading now – Click here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

EUR\/CHF rebounds near 0.9069 as CHF longs trimmed; weak ZEW data and ECB\/SNB decisions awaited Thursday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30915","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30915","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30915"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30915\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30915"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30915"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30915"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}