{"id":30906,"date":"2026-03-17T16:02:16","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T16:02:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/30906\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T16:02:16","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T16:02:16","slug":"td-securities-sees-stabilising-markets-lifting-us-rates-doubting-hike-odds-favouring-an-extended-fed-pause","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/30906\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities sees stabilising markets lifting US rates, doubting hike odds, favouring an extended Fed pause"},"content":{"rendered":"US rates rose as markets steadied, and swap spreads widened. Attention is on Federal Reserve policy expectations and geopolitical news affecting the US Dollar and Treasuries.\n\nTD Securities said the implied odds of a Fed rate rise have increased in recent weeks. It argues this does not point to a hike, and instead expects a longer pause as the more hawkish outcome.\n\n<h3>Markets Focus On Fed Policy And Geopolitics<\/h3>\nComments reported in the market included talk of a possible \u201cmonth or so\u201d delay to President Trump\u2019s China trip. Separate remarks included calls for another rate cut and claims that the Strait of Hormuz would be resolved soon, with the war ending but \u201cnot this week\u201d.\n\nMarkets are watching Tuesday\u2019s 20-year bond reopening for any signs of weaker demand. Middle East developments are described as the main driver of price action, outweighing economic data releases.\n\nThe report notes the item was produced using an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.\n\nWe see now that the view for a prolonged pause, rather than a hike, was the correct one to follow back in 2025. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate steady in the 5.25% to 5.50% range for several quarters. This stability has been the dominant theme, rewarding strategies that bet against further rate increases.\n\n<h3>Derivatives Shift To Timing Of Cuts<\/h3>\nAs geopolitical headlines from the Middle East faded through late 2025, market volatility has compressed significantly. We&#8217;ve seen the VIX, a key measure of market fear, settle into a range around 14, a stark contrast to the spikes seen during those periods of uncertainty. This suggests traders can consider selling volatility through options strategies, assuming no new shocks emerge.\n\nWith the pause now firmly established, the focus for interest rate derivatives has shifted from &#8220;if&#8221; they will hike to &#8220;when&#8221; they will cut. The CME FedWatch Tool is currently pricing in a greater than 70% chance the Fed holds rates steady through the second quarter, but odds for a rate cut are increasing for the second half of the year. This environment favors positions in SOFR futures that anticipate a dovish pivot later in 2026.\n\nThe concern over cracks in Treasury demand we saw during auctions in 2025 has subsided for now. The 10-year Treasury yield is currently hovering around 4.3%, reflecting the market&#8217;s acceptance of the Fed&#8217;s patient stance. Traders should watch upcoming auctions not for signs of distress, but for subtle shifts in demand that could signal a change in long-term inflation expectations.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n<p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>Start trading now &#8211; Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US rates rose; swap spreads widened. Markets focus on Fed expectations, geopolitics, and upcoming 20-year reopening.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30906","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30906","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30906"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30906\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30906"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30906"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30906"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}