{"id":30845,"date":"2026-03-17T02:02:47","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T02:02:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/30845\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T02:02:47","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T02:02:47","slug":"commerzbanks-henry-hao-says-china-began-2026-resiliently-supported-by-industry-exports-infrastructure-despite-property-weakness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/30845\/","title":{"rendered":"Commerzbank\u2019s Henry Hao says China began 2026 resiliently, supported by industry, exports, infrastructure, despite property weakness"},"content":{"rendered":"China\u2019s early-2026 data point to firm growth, supported by strong industrial output, exports and infrastructure spending, while the property sector remains weak. High-tech manufacturing and holiday-related services also lifted activity, easing near-term pressure for extra policy support.\n\nCommerzbank\u2019s current forecast for China is 4.0% GDP growth, with scope to revise it higher. The economy is described as a \u201ctwo-speed\u201d pattern, with external demand and state-led investment offsetting soft domestic demand and fragile real estate.\n\nAt the \u201cTwo Sessions\u201d meeting, Beijing moved to a \u201c4.5% to 5.0%\u201d growth target range, implying more flexibility in how growth is pursued. Real-time measures such as the Yicai High-Frequency Economic Activity Index showed a post-holiday pick-up, linked to higher housing sales and subway traffic.\n\nExternal risks include the Middle East conflict, with PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng warning about increased currency volatility. Prolonged tensions could push up energy prices and disrupt Red Sea routes, raising shipping and export costs.\n\nNPF-related industries remain competitive, but property weakness and external shocks add to the longer-run downtrend in potential growth. The article notes it was produced using an AI tool and edited.\n\nThe Chinese economy has started 2026 stronger than many anticipated. Industrial production for January and February surged 7.0% from a year ago, with exports climbing a similar 7.1%. This suggests looking at bullish positions, such as buying call options on the FTSE China A50 index, to capture this unexpected momentum in the industrial sector.\n\nWe are seeing a clear split between strong, state-backed manufacturing and a weak domestic property market. Back in 2025, we saw how property developer defaults weighed on the entire market. A pair trade, going long futures on a tech-focused index while shorting a real estate ETF, could be an effective way to play this divergence.\n\nThe central bank&#8217;s warning on currency volatility should not be ignored. Implied volatility on USD\/CNH options has already ticked up, reflecting uncertainty around capital flows and policy responses. Buying straddles on the Yuan could be a direct play on a significant price swing, regardless of direction.\n\nGeopolitical risks from the Middle East are a major wild card, with Brent crude already hovering around $85 a barrel. Any escalation could disrupt shipping and spike energy costs, hitting exporters&#8217; margins. Buying out-of-the-money call options on oil futures offers a relatively cheap hedge against this specific risk.\n<p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>Start trading now &#8211; Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Early-2026 China growth looks firm on exports, industry and infrastructure, but property remains weak amid risks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30845","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30845","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30845"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30845\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30845"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30845"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30845"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}