{"id":30804,"date":"2026-03-16T16:00:16","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T16:00:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/30804\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T16:00:16","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T16:00:16","slug":"bnys-bob-savage-says-hawkish-rba-expectations-bolster-aud-resilience-despite-insufficient-g10-inflows-ahead-of-meeting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/30804\/","title":{"rendered":"BNY\u2019s Bob Savage says hawkish RBA expectations bolster AUD resilience, despite insufficient G10 inflows ahead of meeting"},"content":{"rendered":"The Australian dollar (AUD) is approaching a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting with one of the most hawkish policy settings in the G10. Despite this, there has not been a surge of inflows into AUD.\n\nAUD\/USD has performed better than broader measures of the currency. Last week it recorded three consecutive days of inflows above 1.0 in flow magnitude, the first such stretch this year.\n\n

Cross Currency Flows Driving Divergence<\/h3>\nAUD\u2019s wider performance has been weighed down by cross-currency flows, particularly in January. These flows have reduced the currency\u2019s aggregate results compared with the AUD\/USD pair.\n\nThe report says AUD could rise if the RBA confirms current market pricing, even if expectations for US Federal Reserve easing continue to be removed from markets. It also notes that the piece was produced with the help of an AI tool and reviewed by an editor.\n\nWith the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting tomorrow, March 17, 2026, we see them maintaining one of the most aggressive policy stances among major economies. Australian inflation has remained persistent, with the last quarterly reading from January showing a 3.8% annual rate, well above the RBA\u2019s target. This makes it highly unlikely the central bank will signal a cut from its current 4.35% cash rate.\n\nGiven this high interest rate, we find it surprising that a surge of capital isn’t flowing into the Australian dollar. This hesitation suggests traders are weighing the high yield against concerns over global economic conditions. We note that while AUD\/USD saw some inflows last week, the broader trend has been muted.\n\n

Positioning Ideas For Relative Value Trades<\/h3>\nThe real divergence we saw through 2025 was the underperformance of the AUD against other currencies compared to its relative stability against the US dollar. As markets now price out significant US Federal Reserve rate cuts for this year, the simple AUD\/USD yield play has become less compelling. This could keep the pair rangebound even if the RBA remains hawkish.\n\nThe opportunity for derivative traders is likely in positioning for AUD strength against the currencies of economies facing stagflation. For example, with late 2025 Eurozone GDP growth near zero and inflation still elevated, the European Central Bank may be forced to consider easing policy, making long AUD\/EUR positions attractive. Options strategies that benefit from a rise in AUD\/EUR could hedge against this divergence.\n\nWe should also consider that Australia is well-positioned to benefit from a positive terms-of-trade shock. The recent rebound in iron ore prices back above $120 per tonne is a clear example of this fundamental strength. This commodity tailwind provides another reason to structure trades that favor AUD strength against the currencies of major commodity importers.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

\r\n\r\n

Start trading now – Click here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Australian dollar nears hawkish RBA meeting; AUD\/USD inflows improve, but cross-currency flows drag broader performance overall.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30804","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30804","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30804"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30804\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30804"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30804"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30804"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}