{"id":30697,"date":"2026-03-14T00:59:33","date_gmt":"2026-03-14T00:59:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/30697\/"},"modified":"2026-03-14T00:59:33","modified_gmt":"2026-03-14T00:59:33","slug":"commerzbanks-henry-hao-expects-chinese-output-growth-near-5-5-as-retail-sales-and-investment-lag-behind","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/30697\/","title":{"rendered":"Commerzbank\u2019s Henry Hao expects Chinese output growth near 5.5%, as retail sales and investment lag behind"},"content":{"rendered":"Commerzbank\u2019s Senior Economist Dr Henry Hao expects upcoming China figures to show a gap between output and domestic demand. Industrial Production is forecast at about 5.5% year-on-year, with exports of green technology up 21.8%.\n\nRetail sales are forecast at 3.0% year-on-year, pointing to weaker consumption than production. Lunar New Year tourism may lift services, but softer demand for big-ticket items could limit the rise.\n\n<h3>Output Demand Divergence<\/h3>\nFixed-Asset Investment is expected to be near 1.5% year-on-year after contraction in 2025 H2. Near-term gains are linked to equipment upgrades, while wider infrastructure spending is expected to feed through later.\n\nInfrastructure-led support is expected to appear from Q2 as record bond issuance is deployed. A broader lift from infrastructure is described as more likely in the second half of the year.\n\nUpcoming Chinese data is expected to show a two-speed economy, which suggests a pairs trading strategy could be effective. We see industrial production growing a solid 5.5% year-on-year while retail sales lag at a modest 3.0%. This divergence supports going long industrial and export-focused assets while taking short positions on those tied to domestic consumption.\n\nThe industrial strength is largely fueled by a projected 21.8% surge in green technology exports, a trend that has kept commodity prices firm. For instance, three-month copper futures on the LME have consistently held above the $9,000 per tonne mark in early 2026 due to steady purchasing. This outlook favors call options on industrial metals and ETFs focused on China&#8217;s new energy sector, though we remain watchful of trade tensions that simmered with Western nations through 2025.\n\n<h3>Positioning For Two Speed China<\/h3>\nConversely, the weak domestic picture suggests continued pressure on consumer-facing companies. The modest retail sales forecast aligns with recent consumer confidence figures, which have struggled to break above the neutral 100-point level for over a year. This environment justifies holding put options on consumer discretionary indices and companies exposed to China&#8217;s real estate sector.\n\nFixed-asset investment is expected to show a slight 1.5% gain, marking a tentative stabilization after the deep contractions we witnessed in the second half of 2025. However, any significant boost from infrastructure spending is unlikely before the second quarter, as funds from record government bond issuance are only now being deployed. This historical pattern, similar to the delayed impact of stimulus seen after 2015, implies that long positions on construction and materials stocks may be premature.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n<p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>Start trading now &#8211; Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>China data may reveal output outpacing demand: 5.5% industrial growth, 3.0% retail, infrastructure support from Q2.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30697","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30697","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30697"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30697\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30697"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30697"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30697"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}