{"id":30684,"date":"2026-03-13T21:58:42","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T21:58:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/30684\/"},"modified":"2026-03-13T21:58:42","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T21:58:42","slug":"nordea-says-subdued-swedish-inflation-keeps-the-riksbank-waiting-as-core-measures-remain-far-below-target","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/30684\/","title":{"rendered":"Nordea says subdued Swedish inflation keeps the Riksbank waiting, as core measures remain far below target"},"content":{"rendered":"Swedish CPIF inflation and CPIF excluding energy were confirmed at low year-on-year rates. Seasonally adjusted core measures stayed well below the 2% target.\n\nCore services inflation rose, but overall price pressure remained subdued. Nordea expects core inflation to fall further in the coming months.\n\n

Riksbank Policy Outlook<\/h3>\nNordea expects the Riksbank to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% next week. The bank also expects a wait-and-see approach in the near term.\n\nThe war in the Middle East and higher energy prices are expected to add around 0.5 percentage points to headline CPIF inflation in the near term. This effect is described as not drastic so far and starting from a low base.\n\nThe article notes that uncertainty remains high. It also states the piece was produced using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor.\n\nLooking back to early 2025, we recall a period when stubbornly low inflation kept the Riksbank on the sidelines with its policy rate at 1.75%. Core inflation was expected to fall further, and the main risk was an energy price shock from geopolitical tensions. The dominant view was that the next move in rates would be a cut.\n\n

Market Positioning Implications<\/h3>\nThe situation has now changed significantly, creating new opportunities. This week’s CPIF data for February 2026 showed a jump to 2.4%, well above the 2.0% target and surprising a market that expected 2.1%. This is a stark contrast to the low inflationary pressures we saw throughout 2025.\n\nAfter cutting the policy rate twice in late 2025 to its current 1.25%, the Riksbank is now in a difficult position. Markets are now pricing in at least one rate hike by summer, a sharp reversal from just a few months ago. This pivot is causing considerable movement in Swedish assets.\n\nThis has caused the Krona to strengthen, with the EUR\/SEK pair dropping from 11.50 to near 11.25 over the past two weeks. We are seeing a significant pickup in demand for SEK call options, pushing one-month implied volatility up from around 7% to over 9% as traders position for more currency strength. This suggests buying options to bet on a stronger Krona could be profitable.\n\nIn the rates market, the most direct play is to position for higher policy rates. Traders should consider paying fixed on 2-year Swedish interest rate swaps, as the market reprices the forward path for STIBOR higher. This is a bet that the central bank will have to follow through with the hikes the market now expects.\n\nThe prospect of tighter monetary policy is also creating headwinds for Swedish stocks. We believe buying put options on the OMX Stockholm 30 index provides an effective hedge against a market downturn. This strategy would protect portfolios if the Riksbank signals a more aggressive hiking cycle than anticipated at its next meeting.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

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Start trading now – Click here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Swedish CPIF inflation stayed low; core measures below target as Riksbank expected to hold rates steady.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30684","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30684","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30684"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30684\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30684"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30684"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30684"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}