{"id":30604,"date":"2026-03-13T04:59:35","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T04:59:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/30604\/"},"modified":"2026-03-13T04:59:35","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T04:59:35","slug":"commerzbank-says-malaysias-oil-exporter-role-supports-myr-as-january-output-rises-5-9-boosted-by-semiconductors-exports","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/30604\/","title":{"rendered":"Commerzbank says Malaysia\u2019s oil-exporter role supports MYR as January output rises 5.9%, boosted by semiconductors, exports"},"content":{"rendered":"Malaysia\u2019s industrial production rose 5.9% year-on-year in January, above the Bloomberg consensus of 5.0% and up from 4.8% in December. It was the strongest reading since July 2024.\n\nThe rise was linked to export-focused manufacturing and demand for semiconductors. Output is expected to remain supported this year by global demand for both leading-edge and trailing-edge semiconductors, alongside investment in data centres.\n\n<h3>Ringgit Stability And Oil Support<\/h3>\nThe Malaysian ringgit (MYR) has been relatively stable compared with other Asian currencies during a rise in oil prices. Malaysia\u2019s net crude oil exporter position has helped provide support.\n\nDomestic refineries meet about 66% of Malaysia\u2019s refined oil demand. Malaysia still imports petroleum products, which remains an area of exposure.\n\nThe MYR may still be affected by weakness in regional currencies. It may be less exposed to further increases in oil prices than some regional peers.\n\nLooking back to early 2025, we were encouraged by industrial production hitting its strongest point since mid-2024, driven by a booming semiconductor sector. However, the latest data from January 2026 shows this growth has moderated to a more subdued 3.5% year-on-year. This suggests the initial export surge may be losing some momentum.\n\n<h3>Implications For Hedging Strategy<\/h3>\nThe Malaysian ringgit benefited from its oil exporter status when Brent crude was pushing past $95 a barrel in late 2025. With prices now easing to around the $88 mark, that supportive cushion is diminishing, making the currency more sensitive to other factors. This shift in oil&#8217;s influence is a key change from the view we held over a year ago.\n\nConsidering the softening industrial output and the pullback in crude prices, the MYR&#8217;s relative stability from 2025 appears less certain. The USD\/MYR exchange rate has already drifted from 4.65 to 4.75 over the last year, showing this emerging weakness. We should therefore consider buying short-dated USD\/MYR call options to hedge against or speculate on further ringgit depreciation in the coming weeks.\n\nAdding to this outlook is Bank Negara Malaysia\u2019s recent commentary, which hints at potential rate cuts later in the year if growth continues to slow. This contrasts with the situation in early 2025 when stable rates were a given. This monetary policy divergence could further pressure the ringgit against regional currencies whose central banks remain more hawkish.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n<p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>Start trading now &#8211; Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Malaysia\u2019s January industrial production jumped 5.9% on strong semiconductor exports; ringgit steady as oil rises.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30604","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30604","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30604"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30604\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30604"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30604"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30604"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}