{"id":30578,"date":"2026-03-12T22:58:33","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T22:58:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/30578\/"},"modified":"2026-03-12T22:58:33","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T22:58:33","slug":"td-securities-says-strait-of-hormuz-tensions-and-iran-scenarios-widen-oil-prices-ceasefire-odds-remain-modest","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/30578\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities says Strait of Hormuz tensions and Iran scenarios widen oil prices; ceasefire odds remain modest"},"content":{"rendered":"Markets are watching the Strait of Hormuz and possible outcomes from the Iran conflict. Prediction markets put the chance of a ceasefire at about 30% by March 2026 and 40% by April 2026.\n\nEven under a lower-disruption scenario, oil is expected to reset to $70\u201375 per barrel. This is above an earlier forecast for Brent to average about $65 this year.\n\n

Oil Price Scenarios And Market Pricing<\/h3>\nIf the conflict lasts longer, oil could rise to above $150. Higher oil prices could add to inflation and affect European and UK interest rates.\n\nA 10% increase in oil prices is linked to a 0.1\u20130.2% fall in EU\/UK GDP and a 0.3\u20130.4% rise in inflation over a 12-month period. The current situation is described as a price shock rather than a supply shock.\n\nEurope\u2019s energy position has changed through higher LNG imports, increased storage, and about a 20% drop in gas use. A previous response in 2022 included a fiscal package close to 3% of GDP.\n\nMarkets appear to be under-pricing the ongoing conflict near the Strait of Hormuz, even as prediction markets only give a 40% chance of a ceasefire by April 2026. Given this, we see the previous forecast of $65 per barrel for Brent crude this year as completely unachievable. The new floor, even in a best-case scenario, looks to be in the $70-75 range.\n\nThe significant upside risk for oil, potentially pushing prices north of $150 in a prolonged conflict, is not fully reflected in current positioning. Recent EIA data has already shown global crude inventories drawing down for a fifth consecutive week, tightening the market before any major disruption. We believe long-dated call options on Brent and WTI futures offer a compelling way to position for this potential price shock in the coming weeks.\n\n

Inflation Rates And Hedging Strategy<\/h3>\nThis price pressure will translate directly into higher inflation, particularly in Europe and the UK, where a 10% rise in oil can lift inflation by up to 0.4%. The latest flash CPI reading from Eurostat for February 2026 already showed an uptick to 2.8%, suggesting inflationary pressures are re-emerging. This makes inflation swaps an attractive hedge against central banks being forced to react.\n\nLooking back to the energy crisis of 2022, we remember how quickly central banks were forced to abandon dovish plans and hike rates aggressively when inflation took hold. While Europe is more resilient to a supply shock than it was then, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will have little choice but to delay any planned rate cuts if oil prices persist at these new, higher levels. We see value in positioning for a more hawkish stance through interest rate futures.\n\nThe combination of slowing growth and rising inflation creates a difficult environment for equities. Shipping insurance premiums for tankers passing through the Strait have already spiked by another 15% this past week, a clear sign of real economic friction. We feel it is prudent to consider buying protective put options on major European indices or increasing exposure to volatility in the near term.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

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Start trading now – Click here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Markets eye Strait of Hormuz; Iran conflict risks push oil to $70\u201375 or $150, boosting inflation, hurting GDP.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30578","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30578","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30578"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30578\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30578"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30578"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30578"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}