{"id":30565,"date":"2026-03-12T18:59:59","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T18:59:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/30565\/"},"modified":"2026-03-12T18:59:59","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T18:59:59","slug":"nomura-expects-the-ecb-to-hold-the-2-00-deposit-rate-avoiding-reactions-to-iran-driven-inflation-shocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/30565\/","title":{"rendered":"Nomura expects the ECB to hold the 2.00% deposit rate, avoiding reactions to Iran-driven inflation shocks"},"content":{"rendered":"Nomura expects the ECB to keep the deposit rate unchanged at 2.00% at its 19 March meeting, despite the Iran conflict. It expects the Governing Council to wait for clearer evidence on effects on the real economy and inflation expectations.\n\nNomura forecasts March 2026 HICP inflation will be 0.5\u20130.7 percentage points higher than it otherwise would have been. It raised its March 2026 forecast by 0.6 percentage points to 2.5% year-on-year.\n\n<h3>ECB Rate Outlook<\/h3>\nIt also expects the ECB to stay on hold in April. Nomura says the ECB may still point to inflation stabilising around its target by the end of its forecast horizon in Q4 2028.\n\nNomura expects the ECB to want proof of persistent inflation or higher inflation expectations before raising rates. It puts June as the earliest feasible date for a rise, assuming the conflict does not worsen beyond its recent peak.\n\nIf the ECB does raise rates in response to the conflict, Nomura expects two increases. The article notes it was produced with help from an AI tool and reviewed by an editor.\n\nWith the ECB meeting just a week away on March 19, we are not expecting a change to the 2.00% deposit rate. Last week&#8217;s escalation in the Strait of Hormuz has sent shockwaves through energy markets, but the central bank will likely want to assess the real impact first. Brent crude futures settling above $95\/barrel yesterday for the first time since late 2025 will certainly be on their minds.\n\n<h3>June Meeting Focus<\/h3>\nWe anticipate President Lagarde will sound dovish on the immediate outlook, stressing that inflation should stabilize by 2028. However, she will also be keen to avoid a repeat of the 2022 energy crisis, a hawkish signal that implies a readiness to act later. This mixed messaging suggests traders should prepare for a spike in short-term rate volatility.\n\nThe real action for derivatives pricing is shifting towards the June meeting, which is now the first credible opportunity for a rate hike. We are seeing this reflected in the market already, as the 5-year\/5-year inflation swap rate has ticked up to 2.40% this week. Any upcoming inflation data showing persistent price pressures will accelerate the pricing of a summer rate increase.\n\nConsequently, traders should consider positioning for higher rates in the second quarter, potentially through forward rate agreements or receiving fixed on short-dated swaps. Given the uncertainty, buying options that protect against a sharp rate rise, such as interest rate caps or payer swaptions, could be a prudent strategy. This is a very different environment than the stable rate outlook we had at the end of 2025.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n<p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>Start trading now &#8211; Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nomura expects ECB to hold rates despite Iran conflict, awaiting clearer inflation evidence; hikes possible from June.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30565","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30565","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30565"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30565\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30565"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30565"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30565"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}