{"id":30477,"date":"2026-03-11T23:59:09","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T23:59:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/30477\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T23:59:09","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T23:59:09","slug":"oil-supply-disruption-fears-and-a-strong-us-dollar-weigh-on-the-yen-lifting-usd-jpy-further","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/30477\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil supply disruption fears and a strong US dollar weigh on the yen, lifting USD\/JPY further"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY rose on Wednesday as the Yen stayed weak amid concern about Oil supply disruption linked to the US-Iran war. Japan depends heavily on imported energy, especially from the Middle East.\n\nThe pair traded near 158.82, moving back towards levels that were seen before reports of a \u201crate check\u201d on 23 January. A firm US Dollar and higher US Treasury yields also added pressure on the Yen.\n\n

Inflation Data And Market Focus<\/h3>\nUS inflation data met expectations. CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in February, up from 0.2% in January, while headline CPI held at 2.4% year-on-year.\n\nCore CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, down from 0.3% in January, and the annual core rate stayed at 2.5%. Markets are now focused on the Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report due on Friday.\n\nExpectations for central bank policy also shifted. A Reuters poll said the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its key rate at 0.75% on 19 March, and about 60% of economists see 1.00% by end-June.\n\nThe International Energy Agency agreed to release about 400 million barrels of Oil from strategic reserves, with G7 support. Donald Trump said the war with Iran could end \u201csoon\u201d and that there is \u201cpractically nothing left to target.\u201d\n\nWe remember this time last year, in early 2025, when USD\/JPY was pushing toward 159 as the market reacted to the US-Iran conflict. The combination of oil supply fears and a firm US dollar, driven by a cautious Federal Reserve, kept the yen under immense pressure. Japan\u2019s heavy reliance on imported energy made the currency especially vulnerable to the crisis.\n\n

Policy Divergence And Trading Implications<\/h3>\nThe primary driver then, oil supply fears, has now largely faded since the conflict de-escalated in mid-2025 and the IEA’s coordinated reserve release stabilized the market. With WTI crude oil now trading around a stable $79 a barrel, compared to the peaks of over $110 we saw during the war, energy-driven inflation is no longer the main concern for Japan. This has removed a significant headwind that was weakening the yen.\n\nLooking back, US inflation in February 2025 was holding at 2.4%, which kept the Federal Reserve on a hawkish path for most of that year. Today, with the latest CPI figures showing inflation has cooled to 2.1%, the market is now pricing in potential Fed rate cuts later this year. This shift in monetary policy outlook is fundamentally different from the firm-dollar environment of early 2025.\n\nWhile the Bank of Japan did eventually raise its key rate to 1.00% as many expected last year, their cautious stance remains. This leaves a significant, though slightly narrower, interest rate differential that continues to influence currency flows. However, the momentum is now shifting away from further Fed tightening.\n\nGiven that the geopolitical risk premium has vanished and the Fed\u2019s next move is likely a cut, the explosive upward momentum we saw in USD\/JPY has stalled. Traders should therefore consider strategies that benefit from range-bound trading or a gradual decline in the pair. Selling out-of-the-money call options on USD\/JPY around the 152 level could be a viable strategy to capitalize on reduced volatility and capped upside potential.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

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Start trading now – Click here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY climbed as weak Yen, oil disruption fears, strong Dollar and yields pressured Japan; inflation steady.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30477","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30477","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30477"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30477\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30477"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30477"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30477"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}