{"id":30468,"date":"2026-03-11T21:58:51","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T21:58:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/30468\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T21:58:51","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T21:58:51","slug":"eur-gbp-stays-pressured-as-traders-back-the-pound-rethinking-ecb-and-boe-policy-amid-oil-concerns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/30468\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/GBP stays pressured as traders back the Pound, rethinking ECB and BoE policy amid oil concerns"},"content":{"rendered":"EUR\/GBP fell for a fifth day on Wednesday, trading near 0.8628, close to its lowest level since 4 February. The move came as traders reviewed the policy outlook for the ECB and the BoE amid concerns about higher oil prices linked to the US-Iran conflict.\n\nBefore the conflict, markets put the chance of a BoE cut at next week\u2019s decision at about 80%. Higher oil prices have increased uncertainty about inflation, which may lead the BoE to delay cuts.\n\n

Energy Prices And Inflation Risk<\/h3>\nThe Office for Budget Responsibility\u2019s David Miles said energy shocks could lift prices, with an estimate of about 1% higher consumer prices by the end of the year if price conditions do not change. The International Energy Agency agreed to release about 400 million barrels of oil from members\u2019 strategic reserves to address rising energy costs.\n\nFor the ECB, market pricing points to a 60%\u201370% probability of a rate rise by June. EUR\/GBP was weighed down as reduced expectations of BoE cuts supported the Pound more than prospects of ECB tightening supported the Euro.\n\nJoachim Nagel said the ECB would act if an energy price surge leads to lasting higher inflation, and he noted increased inflation risk alongside a weaker economic outlook.\n\nLast year, we saw how an oil price shock linked to the US-Iran conflict forced the Bank of England to delay expected rate cuts. This unexpected hawkishness provided significant support for the Pound against the Euro. This dynamic established a clear pattern where energy-driven inflation gives the BoE a reason to remain tighter for longer.\n\n

Trading Implications For Eur Gbp<\/h3>\nToday, we see a similar divergence brewing, even without a major conflict. Recent statistics show UK inflation remains stubbornly high at 4.0%, while inflation in the Eurozone has fallen more convincingly to 2.8%. This data gives the Bank of England far less room to consider rate cuts compared to the European Central Bank.\n\nThis reinforces the case for positioning for continued EUR\/GBP weakness in the coming weeks. Traders should consider using options to express a bearish view on the pair, such as buying puts on EUR\/GBP. This strategy allows for profiting from a downward move while clearly defining the maximum risk involved.\n\nThe underlying driver is the difference in policy expectations, which can be traded directly through interest rate derivatives. The current environment suggests looking at positions that profit from UK interest rates staying elevated compared to those in the Eurozone. This trade capitalizes on the view that the market is still underpricing the BoE’s need to fight stickier domestic inflation.\n\nWe can recall the period after the 2022 energy crisis, where the UK’s inflation problem proved more stubborn than the Eurozone’s for an extended period. That history, combined with the fragile growth outlook for Germany, Europe’s largest economy, suggests any new supply shocks would likely hit the Euro harder. This reinforces the bearish outlook for the currency pair moving forward.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

\r\n\r\n

Start trading now – Click here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

EUR\/GBP slid to 0.8628 as oil-price fears shifted BoE cut expectations, slightly outweighing ECB tightening bets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30468","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30468","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30468"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30468\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30468"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30468"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30468"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}