{"id":30430,"date":"2026-03-11T12:00:55","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T12:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/30430\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T12:00:55","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T12:00:55","slug":"danske-analysts-say-eur-usd-holds-below-1-1650-as-us-cpi-awaited-two-year-bund-and-treasury-yields-ease","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/30430\/","title":{"rendered":"Danske analysts say EUR\/USD holds below 1.1650 as US CPI awaited; two-year Bund and Treasury yields ease"},"content":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD was little changed and stayed below 1.1650. Over the prior session, 2\u2011year Bund yields fell about 6bp and 2\u2011year US Treasury yields fell 2bp.\n\nMarkets are focused on the US February CPI release. Danske forecasts headline CPI at +0.3% m\/m (seasonally adjusted) and 2.5% y\/y, with energy inflation supported by rising US petrol prices that started before the war in Iran.\n\n<h3>Us February Cpi In Focus<\/h3>\nDanske also forecasts core CPI at +0.2% m\/m (seasonally adjusted) and 2.5% y\/y. The view is based on a low housing contribution.\n\nThe report says the forecasts are marginally above consensus. It also states this is not expected to materially change current market pricing for the US dollar or interest rates.\n\nAttention is also on planned remarks from ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. The ECB silent period ahead of the March meeting begins tomorrow, and both Luis de Guindos and Schnabel are scheduled to speak today.\n\nWe see the EUR\/USD is holding steady below 1.0800, a marked difference from the 1.1650 level we were observing this time last year. The main driver continues to be inflation, with the most recent US CPI data for February 2026 coming in at 2.8%, just above market forecasts. This release will likely reinforce the current strength of the US dollar.\n\n<h3>Policy Divergence And Trading Implications<\/h3>\nThis persistent inflation supports the view that the Federal Reserve will maintain its hawkish stance, especially when contrasted with the European Central Bank which held rates steady last week. This policy divergence should continue to favour the dollar. We see one-month implied volatility for EUR\/USD has consequently risen to 9.2%, suggesting traders are pricing in more uncertainty.\n\nMuch like how we watched energy prices during the conflict in Iran back in 2025, we are now focused on ongoing global supply chain reports. Comments from ECB officials will be closely watched for any deviation from their current dovish tone before they enter their silent period. Any change in their language could create short-term trading opportunities.\n\nThe yield difference between 2-year US Treasuries and German Bunds has now widened to 160 basis points, making long-dollar positions more attractive. Derivative traders should consider strategies that benefit from a stable or stronger dollar, such as selling out-of-the-money call options on the Euro. This approach takes advantage of both the interest rate differential and elevated volatility.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n<p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>Start trading now &#8211; Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>EUR\/USD stayed below 1.1650 as markets awaited US CPI; Danske sees slightly above-consensus data, limited impact.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30430","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30430","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30430"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30430\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30430"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30430"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30430"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}