{"id":30425,"date":"2026-03-11T11:59:06","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T11:59:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/30425\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T11:59:06","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T11:59:06","slug":"rabobank-notes-oil-prices-underprice-hormuz-risks-amid-iranian-attacks-gulf-infrastructure-threats-and-us-strikes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/30425\/","title":{"rendered":"Rabobank notes oil prices underprice Hormuz risks amid Iranian attacks, Gulf infrastructure threats, and US strikes"},"content":{"rendered":"Rabobank RaboResearch reported that oil prices do not fully reflect rising risks around the Strait of Hormuz, amid Iranian attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and US strikes. It said future oil flows depend on how the Middle East war ends, and noted that IEA strategic reserve releases could ease pressure for a limited period.\n\nIran said \u201cnot a single litre\u201d of oil will leave until the US and Israel retreat, and was reported to be activating minelayers and speedboats in the Strait. The US said it has destroyed 16 minelayers, while the report also noted the absence of US, GCC, or European minesweepers or corvettes in the area.\n\n

Escalation Timeline And Market Signals<\/h3>\nThe report referred to the heaviest US attacks so far occurring yesterday. It also cited Israeli defence media suggesting the US could intensify actions for the next 1\u20132 weeks, and media reports that some in the Israeli government think it could take up to a year for Iran\u2019s regime to fall.\n\nThe Wall Street Journal reported that the IEA may propose its largest ever oil release from strategic reserves, beyond G7 commitments. The report also noted a gap between screen prices and physical availability of energy and related products such as sulphur, fertilisers, and helium.\n\nWe should remember the lessons from the 2025 Hormuz crisis, where the market ignored the clear physical risks of Iranian attacks and a potential shipping bottleneck. At that time, oil prices on the screen suggested a peace deal was imminent, even as US military action was escalating. This shows a dangerous disconnect between financial markets and physical reality.\n\nCurrently, Brent crude is trading in a deceptively calm range near $85 per barrel, suggesting stability. However, this price is propped up by the recent OPEC+ decision to extend voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day through the second quarter. This leaves very little spare capacity in the system to handle any unexpected supply disruptions.\n\nUnlike in 2025, we no longer have the buffer of a large strategic reserve release, as US inventories are now at a 45-year low after that event. Shippers are already pricing in renewed risk, with war risk premiums for Hormuz transits quietly ticking up by 0.25% in the last month despite the calm in headline crude prices. This suggests the physical market sees dangers that the paper market is ignoring.\n\n

Options Positioning For Tail Risk<\/h3>\nThis creates an opportunity in the options market, as implied volatility seems too low given the underlying fragility. We should consider buying long-dated call options on crude to protect against a sudden price spike that financial markets are not anticipating. The disconnect between stable screen prices and the growing risks to physical barrels and their derivatives, like sulphur and fertilizers, is becoming too large to ignore.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

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Start trading now – Click here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Oil prices underprice Hormuz risks as Iran threatens blockade; IEA reserve releases may briefly ease supplies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30425","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30425","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30425"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30425\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30425"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30425"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30425"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}