{"id":30367,"date":"2026-03-11T00:00:57","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T00:00:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/30367\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T00:00:57","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T00:00:57","slug":"nomura-expects-riksbank-rates-to-stay-unchanged-swedish-inflation-missed-forecasts-while-iran-tensions-may-lift-energy-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/30367\/","title":{"rendered":"Nomura expects Riksbank rates to stay unchanged; Swedish inflation missed forecasts, while Iran tensions may lift energy prices"},"content":{"rendered":"Swedish inflation has come in below the consensus forecast for four straight months. At the same time, renewed energy price pressures linked to the Iran conflict could push inflation higher, similar to the energy shock seen in 2022.\n\nThe Riksbank is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged this year and through 2026. It is expected to monitor second-round effects from higher energy costs and to take a wait-and-see approach ahead of its 19 March meeting, given higher uncertainty for inflation and activity.\n\n

Inflation Risks And Policy Outlook<\/h3>\n\nThe Middle East conflict may also weaken demand by lowering business and consumer confidence to spend and invest. Sweden is in a fragile recovery after slow or negative GDP growth in 2022 and 2023, and monthly figures point to GDP falls in both December and January.\n\nJanuary GDP was down 1.1% month on month. Discussion of a rate cut may return if the conflict ends quickly and data become clearer, but this is not presented as the main expected outcome.\n\nWith the Riksbank meeting on March 19, the key tension is between weak domestic data and new inflation risks. We have seen Swedish inflation come in below expectations for four consecutive months, with February’s CPIF data hitting 2.1%. However, the conflict in Iran has pushed Brent crude oil up to $98 a barrel, threatening to import a new wave of inflation.\n\nWe believe the central bank will likely emphasize concerns about these higher energy prices causing second-round inflation, similar to the shock we saw back in 2022. This makes a steady policy rate the most probable outcome for the rest of 2026. The interest rate swaps market reflects this, pricing in less than a 15% chance of a rate cut by year-end.\n\n

Trading Implications For Sek Volatility<\/h3>\n\nThis hawkish pressure is happening while Sweden\u2019s economy is in a very fragile state after the slowdown in 2025. Data showed GDP fell by a sharp 1.1% month-on-month in January, which followed a decline in December as well. This underlying weakness would typically increase expectations for a rate cut, but the energy situation is preventing that.\n\nFor traders, this high uncertainty suggests that options premiums are elevated, making long volatility strategies attractive. Buying a Swedish Krona (SEK) straddle or strangle ahead of the March 19th meeting could be a good approach. This strategy would profit from a significant market move, regardless of whether the bank shocks with a hawkish or dovish tone.\n\nAlternatively, if you believe the Riksbank will successfully communicate a prolonged “wait-and-see” approach, the currency could become range-bound. In this scenario, selling an iron condor on the EUR\/SEK exchange rate could be profitable. This position would benefit from a decrease in volatility if the market settles into a new, stable trading range after the meeting.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

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Start trading now – Click here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Swedish inflation undershoots persist, but Iran-linked energy shocks threaten; Riksbank holds rates, watches recovery risks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30367","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30367","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30367"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30367\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30367"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30367"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30367"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}