{"id":30248,"date":"2026-03-09T22:58:30","date_gmt":"2026-03-09T22:58:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/30248\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T22:58:30","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T22:58:30","slug":"gbp-jpy-rises-for-a-third-session-as-traders-trim-boe-cut-bets-amid-oil-fuelled-inflation-worries","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/30248\/","title":{"rendered":"GBP\/JPY rises for a third session as traders trim BoE cut bets amid oil-fuelled inflation worries"},"content":{"rendered":"GBP\/JPY rose for a third day on Monday and traded near 211.70. Movement has been driven by changing BoE and BoJ rate expectations, with limited fresh UK or Japan data.\n\nBefore the Iran conflict escalated, markets priced about an 80% chance of a BoE rate cut at the 19 March meeting and another cut later in the year. Money markets now price about a 50% chance of a BoE rate hike by year end, according to Bloomberg.\n\n

BoE And BoJ Expectations<\/h3>\nThe Yen stayed weaker as markets expect the BoJ to tighten policy slowly, with higher energy costs a risk for Japan\u2019s growth. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said rates will rise if forecasts are met, while monitoring Middle East effects.\n\nJapan\u2019s government is weighing steps funded by emergency reserves to limit petrol price rises. Japan also told a national oil reserve site to prepare for a possible crude release, Nikkei reported.\n\nJapan\u2019s Labour Cash Earnings rose 3% year on year in January, up from 2.4% in December. The Current Account surplus was \u00a5941.6 billion versus \u00a5960 billion expected, down from \u00a57,288 billion.\n\nJapan\u2019s Q4 GDP (QoQ) is due Tuesday and PPI on Wednesday. UK January GDP is due Friday, alongside industrial and manufacturing output and consumer inflation expectations.\n\n

Key Risks And Next Data<\/h3>\nThe sharp rise in GBP\/JPY we saw in early 2025, driven by the US-Iran conflict’s effect on oil prices, has set the stage for the current environment. That conflict pushed Brent crude above $115 per barrel last year, forcing the Bank of England to pivot away from expected cuts and instead deliver two rate hikes, bringing the Bank Rate to 5.75%. As of today, with GBP\/JPY trading near 218.50, the key question is whether that policy divergence can continue to drive the pair higher.\n\nLooking at the Pound, recent data suggests the inflationary pressures from last year’s energy shock are finally easing. The latest CPI figures for February 2026 showed inflation falling to 3.5%, down significantly from its 2025 peak but still well above the 2% target. This puts the Bank of England in a holding pattern, making further rate hikes unlikely but keeping immediate rate cuts off the table, which suggests volatility in the Pound could decline.\n\nMeanwhile, the situation in Japan is shifting, creating a potential risk for those holding long GBP\/JPY positions. After a long delay due to last year’s global uncertainty, the Bank of Japan finally raised its policy rate to 0.10% in late 2025. More importantly, preliminary results from this year’s “Shunto” wage negotiations are showing average pay increases of around 4.1%, a multi-decade high that adds significant pressure on the BoJ to normalize policy further.\n\nGiven these dynamics, the one-way upward trend in GBP\/JPY may be maturing. Derivative traders should consider protecting profits on long positions, perhaps by purchasing put options to hedge against a potential reversal if the Bank of Japan signals a more hawkish stance. The wide interest rate differential that has fueled this trade for so long is now more likely to narrow than to widen further.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

\r\n\r\n

Start trading now – Click here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

GBP\/JPY neared 211.70 as shifting BoE-BoJ rate expectations weakened Yen; Middle East tensions boosted volatility.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30248","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30248","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30248"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30248\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30248"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30248"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30248"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}