{"id":30213,"date":"2026-03-09T13:58:50","date_gmt":"2026-03-09T13:58:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/30213\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T13:58:50","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T13:58:50","slug":"deutsche-bank-expects-february-us-headline-cpi-to-firm-on-energy-while-core-eases-near-2-4-yoy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/30213\/","title":{"rendered":"Deutsche Bank expects February US headline CPI to firm on energy, while core eases near 2.4% YoY"},"content":{"rendered":"Deutsche Bank economists expect February US CPI to show firmer headline inflation than core, mainly due to higher energy prices. They forecast headline CPI to rise about 0.27% month on month, versus roughly 0.24% for core.\n\nOn a year-on-year basis, headline inflation is expected to stay near 2.4%. Core inflation is forecast to edge down from 2.50% to 2.46%.\n\n<h3>Key Data Releases This Week<\/h3>\nCPI is due on Wednesday and core PCE on Friday, with both reports released in the same week. The personal income and spending report on Friday will also provide January\u2019s core PCE reading.\n\nBased on earlier CPI and PPI data, core PCE inflation is projected to rise 0.42% month on month, up from 0.36% previously. This would lift the year-on-year core PCE rate by about a tenth to 3.1%.\n\nWe are seeing a familiar pattern of stubborn inflation that recalls the challenges from early last year. Looking back to February 2025, we saw forecasts where firmer headline CPI was expected due to energy prices, a situation that tested the Federal Reserve&#8217;s resolve. That period, when core PCE was forecast to climb to 3.1%, showed us that the path to lower inflation would not be a straight line.\n\nThe latest data from last month, February 2026, confirms this trend, with headline CPI coming in at 3.2% and core inflation holding at 3.8%. This persistence was underscored by the most recent core PCE reading for January 2026, which remained at 2.8%, significantly above the Fed&#8217;s 2% target. These figures have dashed hopes for an imminent policy pivot from the central bank.\n\n<h3>Market Repricing And Trading Implications<\/h3>\nConsequently, the market has aggressively repriced expectations for the Federal Reserve&#8217;s actions this year. We have seen the probability of a rate cut before June, as implied by Fed funds futures, collapse to under 35%. The prevailing view is now that any easing will be pushed into the third quarter at the earliest.\n\nFor derivative traders, this environment suggests it is prudent to position for sustained higher interest rates and potential volatility. This involves considering strategies like buying options on SOFR futures to hedge against rates remaining elevated for longer than previously anticipated. It also makes purchasing VIX call options attractive ahead of key data releases and FOMC meetings.\n\nWe should remember the lesson from early 2025, when a similar dynamic was unfolding. The expectation then of core PCE accelerating by 0.42% month-on-month was a crucial signal that the final mile of disinflation is the most difficult. That period proved that premature bets on rate cuts can be costly when the data does not cooperate.\n\nAll attention now shifts to the upcoming March FOMC meeting in two weeks&#8217; time. We will be closely monitoring the committee&#8217;s updated economic projections and dot plot for any change in their outlook. Their guidance will be critical in setting market direction for the second quarter.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n<p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>Start trading now &#8211; Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Deutsche Bank sees February CPI firming on energy, with core easing; core PCE projected higher.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30213","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30213","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30213"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30213\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30213"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30213"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30213"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}