{"id":30119,"date":"2026-03-06T23:58:21","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T23:58:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/30119\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T23:58:21","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T23:58:21","slug":"ing-economists-expect-japans-2025-q4-gdp-revision-higher-as-winter-bonuses-grow-and-inflation-eases-wages","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/30119\/","title":{"rendered":"ING economists expect Japan\u2019s 2025 Q4 GDP revision higher, as winter bonuses grow and inflation eases wages"},"content":{"rendered":"Japan will release its 2025 Q4 GDP data next week, alongside China\u2019s upcoming inflation and trade figures. An upward revision to Japan\u2019s 2025 Q4 GDP is anticipated.\n\nThe GDP growth rate is expected to be revised from 0.1% to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted). This expectation is linked to stronger-than-forecast capital spending data released last week.\n\n<h3>Japan Growth Outlook<\/h3>\nLabour cash earnings are expected to rise on the back of strong winter bonuses. Real cash earnings are expected to turn positive as inflation cools.\n\nProducer price inflation is projected to remain stable at 2.2%. The article notes it was produced with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.\n\nLooking back, the upward revision to Japan\u2019s fourth-quarter 2025 GDP proved accurate, driven by strong capital spending and wage growth. This economic strength has carried into the new year, creating a clear signal for the market. This fundamental shift away from the economic stagnation seen in previous years requires a fresh approach.\n\nInflation data from February 2026 showed core CPI holding firm at 2.5%, remaining above the Bank of Japan\u2019s 2% target. Furthermore, the initial results from the 2026 &#8220;Shunto&#8221; spring wage negotiations are indicating average pay increases of over 4%, providing a solid foundation for consumer demand. These figures give us confidence that inflationary pressures are now domestically driven and sustainable.\n\n<h3>Trade Strategy Implications<\/h3>\nWith this backdrop, we believe the Bank of Japan will be forced to act at its upcoming March meeting. After ending its negative interest rate policy back in 2024, the market is now pricing in a more hawkish stance to anchor inflation expectations. The probability of another rate hike has increased significantly over the past month.\n\nTraders should consider positioning for a stronger yen against the dollar, as the policy divergence between the U.S. and Japan begins to narrow. Buying JPY call options or USD put options with expirations in the second quarter offers a way to capitalize on this expected monetary policy shift. After the prolonged yen weakness of 2024 and 2025, the currency appears to be at a turning point.\n\nA rapidly appreciating yen could negatively impact Japan&#8217;s large exporters, who benefited from its weakness in 2024 and 2025. Therefore, buying puts on the Nikkei 225 index could serve as an effective hedge against a stronger currency. This strategy targets the expected compression of profit margins for Japan&#8217;s multinational firms.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n<p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>Start trading now &#8211; Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Japan\u2019s 2025 Q4 GDP may be revised up; China inflation\/trade due; earnings rise, PPI steady.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30119","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30119","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30119"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30119\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30119"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30119"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30119"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}