{"id":30115,"date":"2026-03-06T22:58:19","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T22:58:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/30115\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T22:58:19","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T22:58:19","slug":"miran-says-the-fed-usually-ignores-oil-price-moves-and-remains-cautious-about-interpreting-one-months-jobs-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/30115\/","title":{"rendered":"Miran says the Fed usually ignores oil price moves and remains cautious about interpreting one month\u2019s jobs data"},"content":{"rendered":"Stephen Miran, a Federal Reserve governor, told CNBC on Friday that he is hesitant to place much weight on one month\u2019s jobs report. He said this view affects how he considers policy.\n\nHe said policy is miscalibrated and that monetary policy is too tight. He added that this would bias him towards a more dovish policy.\n\n

Fed Reaction Function And Inflation Signals<\/h3>\nMiran said the Fed typically does not respond to oil prices. He also said there is no inflation pressure in rents.\n\nHe said the neutral rate is about 2.5% to 2.75%. He said planning is difficult at present and that he will continue as a holdover until someone is confirmed for his seat.\n\nWith monetary policy being called too tight, we should anticipate an increasingly dovish stance from the Federal Reserve in the coming weeks. The current Fed Funds Rate at 4.50% is well above the stated neutral target of 2.5% to 2.75%, suggesting significant room for future rate cuts. This creates a clear bias that we can position for.\n\nWe should not overreact to the strong February 2026 jobs report, which added a surprising 280,000 jobs. The message is to look past single data points and focus on the broader trend of a slowing economy. This reinforces the idea that the bar for any hawkish action is extremely high.\n\n

Positioning For Lower Rates<\/h3>\nThe recent spike in WTI crude oil prices to over $95 a barrel is likely to be ignored by policymakers. We’ve seen this playbook before, where the Fed looks past energy shocks unless they significantly impact core inflation. The view that rent inflation is not a pressure point aligns with the latest CPI data showing core inflation cooling to 2.9%, supporting the case for easier policy.\n\nThis outlook suggests positioning for lower interest rates through derivatives like SOFR futures or by purchasing call options on long-duration Treasury bond ETFs. The market may be underpricing the potential for rate cuts this year, especially after the recent strong economic data. This mirrors the dovish pivot we saw the market price in during late 2025 when inflation first showed consistent signs of falling.\n\nFor equity traders, this dovish signal is a green light, particularly for rate-sensitive growth stocks. We should consider strategies like buying call options on the Nasdaq 100 index. A more accommodative Fed policy has historically provided a strong tailwind for equities, as we observed during the rallies of 2024.\n\nThere is a degree of political uncertainty, as the policymaker communicating this dovish view is in a holdover position. A change in personnel on the board could rapidly alter this outlook. This risk means that while we should lean into dovish trades, we must remain aware that the composition of the Fed could shift.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

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Start trading now – Click here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed Governor Stephen Miran downplayed one jobs report, called policy too tight, and pegged neutral rate 2.5\u20132.75%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30115","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30115","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30115"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30115\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30115"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30115"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30115"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}