{"id":30112,"date":"2026-03-06T22:00:14","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T22:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/30112\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T22:00:14","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T22:00:14","slug":"gold-climbs-as-softer-us-payrolls-weaken-the-dollar-with-middle-east-tensions-boosting-safe-haven-demand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/30112\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold climbs as softer US payrolls weaken the dollar, with Middle East tensions boosting safe-haven demand"},"content":{"rendered":"Gold (XAU\/USD) rose during the North American session on Friday after weaker US payrolls data and a risk-off mood linked to the Middle East conflict. It traded near $5,140, up more than 1%.\n\nDespite Friday\u2019s rise, gold was set to finish the week down nearly 2.50%, pressured by a stronger US Dollar and higher US Treasury yields. February US Nonfarm Payrolls showed the economy shed over 92K jobs versus forecasts for 59K job gains, while unemployment rose to 4.4%, still below the Federal Reserve\u2019s 4.5% projection for 2026.\n\n

Market Pricing After Weak Data<\/h3>\nUS Retail Sales fell 0.2% month-on-month in January due to weaker car sales tied to winter disruptions, compared with expectations for a 0.3% fall. After the data, markets priced 43 basis points of Fed rate cuts by year-end, up from 35 basis points the day before.\n\nAttention turned to the Fed\u2019s 17\u201318 March meeting and possible changes to the dot-plot in the SEP. Next week\u2019s schedule includes consumer inflation, housing data, GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims and Core PCE.\n\nTechnically, gold traded within $5,100\u2013$5,150, with resistance at $5,194, $5,206, $5,249 and $5,300. Support sat at $5,100, the 20-day SMA at $5,091, $5,000, the 50-day SMA near $4,855, and $4,841.\n\nBased on the market dynamics from a year ago, our current situation demands a different approach. Back in early 2025, a dismal jobs report showing a loss of over 92,000 jobs sent gold surging as traders bet on Fed rate cuts. Today, the latest February jobs report showed a robust gain of 210,000 positions, keeping the unemployment rate low at 3.9% and challenging the case for imminent easing.\n\nThis strong labor market has fundamentally altered interest rate expectations from where they were last year. While traders in March 2025 began pricing in 43 basis points of cuts, we now see the market pushing rate cut expectations further into late 2026 or even 2027. This strength, combined with recent Core PCE inflation readings that remain stubbornly above 3%, suggests the Fed has little reason to pivot.\n\n

Gold Support From Geopolitics And Central Banks<\/h3>\nDespite a stronger dollar, gold is trading near $5,450, well above the $5,140 level seen after last year’s weak data. This indicates that geopolitical risk and central bank buying continue to provide a strong undercurrent of support for the metal. Therefore, we are seeing gold’s safe-haven status overpower its traditional inverse relationship with the dollar for now.\n\nWith key inflation data and the next Fed meeting on March 18th on the horizon, volatility is expected. Traders should consider buying call options with strike prices above $5,500 to capitalize on any upside surprise if inflation data comes in hotter than expected. This offers a defined-risk way to play a potential breakout driven by a flight to hard assets.\n\nConversely, the risk of a hawkish surprise from the Fed is significant, which could trigger a sharp pullback in gold prices. To protect existing long positions, we should look at purchasing put options below the $5,300 support level. This strategy effectively creates a price floor, providing insurance against a sudden reversal driven by a more aggressive monetary policy outlook.\n\nThe upcoming dot-plot will be the most crucial piece of information, much as it was in 2025. We will be watching for any upward revision in the Federal Reserve\u2019s interest rate projections. Any signal that officials see rates staying higher for longer would likely strengthen the US Dollar and present a major headwind for gold.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

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Start trading now – Click here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gold jumps above $5,140 on weak payrolls, risk-off Middle East tensions; still weekly loss on dollar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30112","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30112","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30112"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30112\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30112"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30112"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30112"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}