{"id":30069,"date":"2026-03-06T10:58:59","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T10:58:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/30069\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T10:58:59","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T10:58:59","slug":"rabobanks-raboresearch-examines-how-middle-east-tensions-dearer-oil-and-european-gas-alter-eurozone-inflation-growth-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/30069\/","title":{"rendered":"Rabobank\u2019s RaboResearch examines how Middle East tensions, dearer oil and European gas alter Eurozone inflation, growth outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"Rabobank\u2019s RaboResearch examines how the Middle East conflict, and higher oil and European gas prices, may affect the Eurozone economy. Its updated baseline puts inflation in 2026 about 0.5 percentage points higher and growth 0.1 percentage points lower than its pre-conflict projections.\n\nIt forecasts Eurozone HICP inflation averaging 2.4% in 2026, then easing to 1.9% in 2027. The report states that each escalation scenario cuts growth by a further 0.1 percentage points.\n\n

Energy Shock And Inflation Outlook<\/h3>\nIn the most disruptive scenario, where critical energy infrastructure is out of operation for an extended period, inflation rises to over 5%. It also peaks above 6% in late 2026.\n\nOnly Scenario 3, described as the destruction of critical energy infrastructure, shows economic growth falling by 0.7 percentage points. Across the four largest member states, the projections indicate Germany and Italy are hit more than France and Spain.\n\nThe article notes it was produced using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor.\n\nWe are adjusting our view for the Eurozone, as the ongoing energy shock from the Middle East reshapes the economic landscape. With Brent crude recently touching $95 and TTF gas futures trading over \u20ac45\/MWh, our models now point to average inflation of 2.4% for 2026. This reflects how strongly geopolitical events are influencing domestic prices.\n\n

Growth Risks And Market Implications<\/h3>\nThe latest flash estimate from Eurostat showing February’s HICP inflation at 2.7% confirms this upward trend, moving further from the ECB’s 2% target. Consequently, interest rate markets are rapidly pricing out any remaining expectations for a rate cut this year. This situation is reminiscent of the tough policy choices we saw central banks face back in 2022.\n\nAt the same time, economic activity is weakening, with our growth baseline for 2026 now lowered by 0.1 percentage points. This is supported by the latest German Ifo Business Climate Index, which fell unexpectedly last week, signaling a contraction in manufacturing sentiment. This combination of rising prices and slowing growth points towards a difficult period ahead.\n\nWe must now consider the significant tail risk of a more disruptive scenario involving damage to critical energy infrastructure. In such a case, inflation could surge above 5%, a level that would almost certainly trigger a recession as economic growth could fall by as much as 0.7 percentage points. This potential for extreme volatility means options protecting against sharp market moves are becoming more attractive.\n\nLooking at the four largest economies, we project that Germany and Italy will bear the brunt of this energy shock more than France and Spain. Their higher industrial reliance on energy imports makes them particularly vulnerable, a pattern we also observed during the energy crisis that began in 2022. This divergence suggests opportunities in relative value trades, betting on German underperformance against French assets.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

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Start trading now – Click here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

RaboResearch warns Middle East conflict-driven energy price shocks could raise Eurozone inflation, while slightly slowing growth through 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30069","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30069","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30069"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30069\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30069"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30069"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30069"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}