{"id":30029,"date":"2026-03-06T04:58:29","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T04:58:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/30029\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T04:58:29","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T04:58:29","slug":"aud-usd-drops-roughly-1-hovering-near-0-7010-after-dipping-under-0-7000-extending-two-bearish-sessions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/30029\/","title":{"rendered":"AUD\/USD drops roughly 1%, hovering near 0.7010 after dipping under 0.7000, extending two bearish sessions"},"content":{"rendered":"The Australian Dollar fell as risk-off flows linked to the Middle East supported the US Dollar. AUD\/USD dropped about 1% on Thursday to near 0.7010 after dipping below 0.7000, and it remains in a roughly 150-pip range between 0.7000 and about 0.7150.\n\nAustralia\u2019s Q4 GDP rose 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, with annual growth at 2.6%, the fastest pace since early 2023. The RBA lifted rates to 3.85% in February, and markets price around a 30% chance of a March hike, while a move to 4.10% in May is fully priced.\n\n

Inflation And Energy Shock<\/h3>\nRising crude oil prices, linked to an effective Strait of Hormuz shutdown and the Iran conflict entering its sixth day, are affecting inflation expectations. The RBA\u2019s inflation target is 2\u20133%.\n\nUS February nonfarm payrolls are forecast near 60K versus 130K in January, with unemployment seen at 4.3%. Fed officials continue to debate rates while still indicating cuts remain on track this year.\n\nTechnically, AUD\/USD traded at 0.7009, with support at 0.6960, 0.6920, and 0.6890, and resistance at 0.7045, 0.7085, and 0.7120. Iron ore is Australia\u2019s largest export, worth $118 billion a year (2021 data), and China is the main destination.\n\nThe Australian Dollar is currently caught between conflicting forces, with risk-off sentiment from the Middle East pushing it down while a strong domestic economy suggests it should be higher. Surging crude oil prices, with Brent crude futures now holding above $115 per barrel, are fueling global inflation fears and supporting the safe-haven US Dollar. This complicated picture makes directional bets on the Aussie risky in the immediate term.\n\n

RBA Meeting Risk<\/h3>\nWe are now looking toward the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting on March 16-17 with uncertainty. While the strong Q4 2025 GDP figures and the RBA’s hawkish talk suggest a rate hike is possible, market pricing and this week\u2019s surprise 0.2% contraction in January retail sales show the economy may be cooling. This divergence between hawkish central bank commentary and weakening consumer data creates a difficult trading environment.\n\nAll eyes are now on the US Nonfarm Payrolls report due later today, which is expected to show a significant slowdown in job creation. A weaker-than-expected number could dampen the US Dollar’s recent strength, but the ongoing conflict in Iran continues to provide a strong underlying bid for the currency as a safe haven. We see this as a pivotal event that could either break the AUD\/USD below key support or provide a much-needed bounce.\n\nAdding to the pressure on the Aussie, recent data from China showed its Caixin Manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.8, indicating a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector of Australia’s largest trading partner. Consequently, we’ve seen iron ore futures pull back below $120 per tonne, weakening a key pillar of support for the currency. This raises concerns about the sustainability of Australia’s export growth in the first quarter of 2026.\n\nGiven the AUD\/USD is trapped in a range and facing major event risk, derivative traders should consider strategies that profit from a spike in volatility. Implied volatility on one-month options has already climbed above 12%, and purchasing a strangle using out-of-the-money puts and calls could position for a breakout without needing to predict the direction. This allows us to capitalize on a decisive move out of the 0.7000 to 0.7150 consolidation band.\n\nFor those with a bearish bias, buying short-dated put options with a strike price just below the psychological 0.7000 level offers a low-cost way to position for a breakdown. If today’s US jobs data comes in strong or geopolitical tensions escalate further, the pair could quickly break its recent support. This strategy provides defined risk ahead of the volatile RBA meeting in just over a week’s time.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

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Start trading now – Click here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Australian Dollar slides on Middle East risk-off, despite strong Q4 GDP; oil surge and Fed data pressured.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30029","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30029","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30029"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30029\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30029"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30029"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30029"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}