{"id":29997,"date":"2026-03-05T21:58:42","date_gmt":"2026-03-05T21:58:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/29997\/"},"modified":"2026-03-05T21:58:42","modified_gmt":"2026-03-05T21:58:42","slug":"geopolitical-uncertainty-and-high-energy-prices-support-the-dollar-turner-sees-dxy-edging-higher-amid-private-credit-worries","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/29997\/","title":{"rendered":"Geopolitical uncertainty and high energy prices support the Dollar; Turner sees DXY edging higher amid private-credit worries"},"content":{"rendered":"Geopolitical tension in the Middle East and higher energy prices are supporting the US Dollar. ING expects the DXY index to move towards the upper end of its recent trading range.\n\nMarkets are watching European natural gas prices, with a move higher linked to a potential rise in DXY towards the 99.40 to 99.50 area. The focus remains on near-term price moves in energy markets.\n\n

Fed Beige Book Signals Mixed Growth<\/h3>\nIn the US, the Federal Reserve\u2019s Beige Book ahead of the 18 March FOMC meeting described growth as mixed to subdued, with a similar tone for the labour market. It also noted that some firms may pass tariff costs to consumers, while raising doubts about the ability of lower-income consumers to absorb higher prices.\n\nAttention is also on US private credit, including redemption pressures at business development companies (BDCs). BDCs are investment companies aimed at wealthy retail clients, and they typically invest funds in small and medium-sized enterprises.\n\nSome large BDCs linked to Blue Owl and Blackstone are seeing heavy redemptions. Market attention is on whether redemptions accelerate, whether limits or halts are imposed, and whether illiquid assets would need to be sold to meet withdrawals.\n\nWith ongoing uncertainty, we see the US dollar finding continued support as a safe haven. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East persist and European natural gas prices have jumped over 15% in the last month, reinforcing a risk-off sentiment. Derivative traders should consider strategies that benefit from a strong dollar, such as buying DXY call options targeting the 106 level.\n\n

Private Credit Liquidity Risk<\/h3>\nLooking back, we recall similar analysis in 2025 that pointed to the DXY pushing towards 99.50 on the back of energy price concerns. While the index is now trading much higher, around 104.75, the underlying drivers remain firmly in place. This suggests the path of least resistance for the dollar is still upwards in the near term.\n\nWe are also paying close attention to signs of stress in the US private credit market, which has grown to over $1.7 trillion. There are mounting concerns over investor redemptions from large business development companies (BDCs). For instance, certain high-profile BDC funds have seen withdrawal requests exceed their stated quarterly limits for several consecutive quarters.\n\nThis situation presents a tangible risk of a liquidity event if BDCs are forced to sell illiquid loans to meet these redemptions. Such a credit event would likely fuel a more aggressive flight to safety, further strengthening the dollar. Traders could hedge this risk by purchasing put options on ETFs exposed to regional banks or high-yield debt.\n\nThe combination of these factors is elevating market nervousness, as seen by the VIX index climbing from 14 to over 18 recently. This backdrop of rising implied volatility makes strategies like long straddles or strangles on major equity indices appealing. Such positions would profit from a significant market move in either direction, which seems increasingly likely.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

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Start trading now – Click here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Middle East tensions and higher energy prices boost the dollar, while markets monitor DXY range and BDC redemption risks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29997","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29997","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29997"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29997\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29997"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29997"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29997"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}