{"id":29903,"date":"2026-03-05T02:01:29","date_gmt":"2026-03-05T02:01:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/29903\/"},"modified":"2026-03-05T02:01:29","modified_gmt":"2026-03-05T02:01:29","slug":"usd-chf-slid-0-25-after-failing-to-close-above-0-7819-50-day-sma-amid-rising-risk-aversion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/29903\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/CHF slid 0.25% after failing to close above 0.7819 50-day SMA amid rising risk aversion"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/CHF fell 0.25% on Wednesday after it did not close above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7819. The US dollar gave back part of its earlier gains as risk aversion increased, leaving the pair below 0.7800.\n\nPrice action keeps the downtrend in place, with lower highs and lower lows still intact. A move above Tuesday\u2019s high of 0.7878 would bring the 100-day SMA resistance at 0.7909 into view.\n\n<h3>Technical Momentum Signals<\/h3>\nThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bullish but has turned lower towards its neutral level. A second daily close below the 50-day SMA suggests room for a further pullback.\n\nIf USD\/CHF drops below Tuesday\u2019s low of 0.7784, the next level to watch is 0.7700. Further weakness would expose a support trendline in the 0.7660 to 0.7680 area.\n\nLooking back at our analysis from this time in 2025, we saw the USD\/CHF pair struggling below the 0.7800 mark and failing at its 50-day moving average. The technical outlook then was clearly bearish, pointing towards potential tests of the 0.7700 level. This bearish sentiment was largely based on the downtrend that was in place at the time.\n\nThe situation today is quite different, with the pair now trading firmly above 0.8100. Recent Swiss inflation data for February came in at a cool 1.1%, fueling market speculation that the Swiss National Bank may be the first major central bank to cut rates this cycle. This policy divergence is a significant catalyst that was absent last year.\n\n<h3>Policy Divergence Outlook<\/h3>\nThis contrasts sharply with the United States, where last week&#8217;s non-farm payrolls report showed a robust 250,000 jobs added, keeping the Federal Reserve on a steady path. This fundamental split suggests the path of least resistance for USD\/CHF is upward, a direct reversal of the technical weakness we observed in 2025. The failure to break lower last year built a strong base for the current rally.\n\nGiven this policy divergence, buying call options on USD\/CHF could be a viable strategy in the coming weeks. We are looking at strike prices around 0.8200 with expirations in late April to capture potential upside from a hawkish Fed and a dovish SNB. This allows traders to position for a continued move higher with defined risk.\n\nFor those more cautious, a bull call spread could limit upfront costs while still positioning for a move towards the 0.8250 resistance level. Implied volatility has remained moderate, making option premiums relatively attractive for initiating new positions. We should monitor upcoming central bank commentary closely for any change in tone.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n<p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>Start trading now &#8211; Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USD\/CHF slips 0.25% below 0.7800; downtrend persists. Break 0.7784 targets 0.7700, then 0.7660-0.7680 support.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29903","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29903","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29903"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29903\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29903"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29903"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29903"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}