{"id":29761,"date":"2026-03-04T03:53:45","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T03:53:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/29761\/"},"modified":"2026-03-04T03:53:45","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T03:53:45","slug":"td-securities-says-reduced-market-bets-contrast-with-mpc-domestic-data-focus-keeping-march-boe-cut-likely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/live-updates\/29761\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities says reduced market bets contrast with MPC domestic data focus, keeping March BoE cut likely"},"content":{"rendered":"Market pricing has reduced expectations of a March Bank of England rate cut. The outlook remains uncertain due to events in the Middle East.\n\nThe Monetary Policy Committee is described as placing more weight on domestic UK inflation drivers than some other G10 central banks. Recent UK data is cited as providing enough domestic evidence to support a cut in the near term.\n\n<h3>Domestic Data Still Supports Easing<\/h3>\nHigher energy prices are expected to lift petrol prices in the short term. Any effect on household utility bills is expected to take longer because Ofgem adjusts household prices quarterly.\n\nThe forecast presented is for one rate cut in March. After that, rates are expected to be held for the rest of the year.\n\nThe market seems to have scaled back its bet on a March rate cut, but we believe the Monetary Policy Committee is still poised to act. Current overnight index swap pricing implies only a 40% chance of a cut, which feels too low given the recent slowdown. This suggests positioning for lower short-term rates through instruments like SONIA futures could be a valuable strategy.\n\nThe MPC has a history of focusing more on domestic drivers than on what other central banks are doing. With UK inflation recently falling to 2.1% and Q4 2025 GDP growth stalling at just 0.1%, there is enough UK-specific evidence to justify easing policy. We saw a similar dynamic last year, when the MPC pivoted in late 2025 in direct response to cooling UK labor market data, despite global noise.\n\n<h3>Sterling Risk And Trading Positioning<\/h3>\nA rate cut this month, especially if the Federal Reserve and ECB hold steady, would likely put downward pressure on the British Pound. Traders could consider using options to position for a weaker sterling against the dollar, as a lower interest rate makes holding the currency less attractive. The key is that the MPC is expected to cut once and then hold, creating a clear policy divergence for the near term.\n\nThis difference between our view and the market&#8217;s creates uncertainty, which means volatility in UK assets could rise as the meeting approaches. While energy prices are a concern, the Ofgem price cap framework means the immediate hit to UK consumer inflation will be limited. This insulates the MPC for now, allowing them to focus on the weaker domestic growth picture.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n<p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>Start trading now &#8211; Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets now doubt a March BoE cut; Middle East risks persist, but UK inflation data supports one cut.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29761","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29761","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29761"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29761\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29761"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29761"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29761"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}