{"id":13755,"date":"2024-06-27T13:03:35","date_gmt":"2024-06-27T13:03:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.net\/?p=13755"},"modified":"2025-03-06T06:58:19","modified_gmt":"2025-03-06T06:58:19","slug":"forex-market-analysis-nvidias-drop-and-ai-sector-volatility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/analysis\/13755\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Market Analysis: Nvidia&#8217;s Drop and AI Sector Volatility"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">CURRENCIES<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>French elections<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>National Rally: Leads the polls but unlikely to secure an outright majority.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Impact: A fractured French government may weigh on the Euro.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Poll Predictions:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>National Rally (RN): 31.5% to 35%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>People\u2019s Front (left coalition): 28% to 29.5%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>President Macron\u2019s alliance: 19.5% to 22%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Implications: The fragmented vote will affect both French assets and the Euro in the coming days.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Second round: Final vote on Sunday, July 7th.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>EUR\/USD drivers:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Recent decline due to US dollar strength and Euro weakness.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Key data releases today: US durable goods and final Q1 GDP.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Focus: Friday\u2019s US core PCE report for further guidance.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Market impact<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Volatility: High-importance US data and French elections will create a volatile environment for EUR\/USD traders.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Current price: EUR\/USD below 1.0700, struggling to move higher.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Technical analysis:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Downward trend since late December with lower highs and lower lows.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Key levels: April 16 multi-month low and October 2023 double low around 1.0516 as downside targets.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Initial resistance around 1.0750.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Retail trader data<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>66.18% of traders are net-long (ratio of 1.96 to 1).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Increase in net-long positions: 14.14% higher than yesterday, 25.04% higher than last week.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Decrease in net-short positions: 14.48% lower than yesterday, 22.26% lower than last week.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Contrarian view: High net-long positions suggest potential for further EUR\/USD decline.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bias: Stronger EUR\/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias due to current sentiment and recent changes.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">STOCK MARKET<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Market impact<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nvidia Corp. (NVDA): Recently experienced a significant drop, losing nearly half a trillion dollars in market value.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>South Korea\u2019s major companies: Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. also saw declines due to their roles in the AI supply chain.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Micron&#8217;s role in AI<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>High-bandwidth memory: Micron\u2019s memory is used alongside Nvidia\u2019s chips for AI applications.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Stock performance: Micron&#8217;s shares had more than doubled in the past year but were punished for not exceeding high expectations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Analyst expectations: The company&#8217;s outlook was in line with average estimates, but this was not enough to satisfy the market.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Market sentiment<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Unrealistic expectations: Many companies that beat estimates are still being sold off.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Andrew Jackson\u2019s view: The market holds unrealistic expectations and is aware that US names are overvalued.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>AI sector volatility<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nvidia correction: Nvidia shares entered correction territory earlier this week before recovering.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Semiconductor index: A global semiconductor index fell about 5% from its recent high.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Micron\u2019s position<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Traditional business: Micron is still recovering from a slump in its traditional memory supply for PCs and smartphones.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Share price uncertainty: The company&#8217;s briefing fell short of SK Hynix\u2019s announcement that its HBM production capacity is sold out through 2025.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Industry insights:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Tom Kang\u2019s perspective<\/strong>: Micron does not hold a dominant position in AI memory like SK Hynix or in the broader memory industry like Samsung.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Reality check<\/strong>: This situation serves as a reality check for the AI sector, which appears to be in a bubble.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Valuation concern:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>High valuations<\/strong>: The rally in US megacap stocks associated with AI has led to historically high valuations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Micron\u2019s valuation<\/strong>: Micron shares are priced at 4.5 times projected sales over the next 12 months, compared to an average of 2.2 times over the past 10 years.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.net\/trade-now\/\" title=\"\">here<\/a> to open account and start trading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CURRENCIES French elections: EUR\/USD drivers: Market impact: Retail trader data: STOCK MARKET Market impact: Micron&#8217;s role in AI: Market sentiment: AI sector volatility: Micron\u2019s position: Industry insights: Valuation concern: Click here to open account and start trading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13755","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"luna","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/luna\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13755","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13755"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13755\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13755"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13755"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13755"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}