{"id":13234,"date":"2024-06-07T07:40:12","date_gmt":"2024-06-07T07:40:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.net\/?p=13234"},"modified":"2025-03-06T06:58:19","modified_gmt":"2025-03-06T06:58:19","slug":"forex-market-analysis-us-dollar-weakens-as-treasury-yields-decline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/analysis\/13234\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Market Analysis: US Dollar Weakens as Treasury Yields Decline"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">CURRENCIES<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>US Dollar Decline<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>US Treasury yields remain in a downtrend, weakening the dollar.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>US 2-year yields are nearing a two-month low.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The dollar index trades below key levels: 200-day SMA, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and recent trend support.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Friday\u2019s US Jobs Report may temporarily boost the greenback, but medium-term, the index might fall to 103.44 (50% Fib retracement) before testing 102.34.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gold Recovery<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Gold continues to recoup recent losses.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Currently re-testing the $2,360\/oz. level; a break above could signal further gains.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The recent range of $2,280\/oz. &#8211; $2,450\/oz. is expected to hold in the short- to medium-term.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">STOCK MARKET<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>May Jobs Report:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nonfarm payrolls expected to rise by 185,000 in May, compared to 175,000 in April.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Unemployment rate projected to remain flat at 3.9%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Average hourly earnings (month-over-month) anticipated to increase by 0.3%, up from 0.2%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Average hourly earnings (year-over-year) expected to stay at 3.9%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Average weekly hours worked likely to remain at 34.3.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Market Reaction:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Stock market has hit record highs amid softer-than-expected economic data.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Increased investor confidence that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in September.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markets pricing in a 67% chance of a rate cut in September, up from 50% a week ago (CME FedWatch Tool).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Labor Market Trends:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Economists see the report indicating a healthy, balanced labor market rather than a broader economic slowdown.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bank of America economist Michael Gapen suggests the &#8220;catch-up&#8221; effect in hiring is fading, supporting potential for Fed policy easing based on inflation confidence.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Additional Data:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The latest JOLTS report showed job openings fell to their lowest level since February 2021.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ratio of job openings to unemployed people returned to 1.2, aligning with pre-pandemic levels.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Wage Growth:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>April&#8217;s year-over-year wage growth fell below 4% for the first time in nearly three years.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economists expect May&#8217;s wage growth to rise slightly on a monthly basis to 0.3%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Year-over-year wage growth expected to remain at 3.9%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Considerations:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Friday&#8217;s report will be scrutinized for signs of either a labor market normalization or an early economic slowdown.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consistently high wage growth could contribute to persistent inflation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Oxford Economics chief US economist Ryan Sweet notes the Fed aims for a gradual slowing in job and wage growth trends.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.net\/trade-now\/\" title=\"\">here <\/a>to open account and start trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span class=\"ui-provider a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z ab ac ae af ag ah ai aj ak\" dir=\"ltr\"><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CURRENCIES US Dollar Decline: Gold Recovery: STOCK MARKET May Jobs Report: Market Reaction: Labor Market Trends: Additional Data: Wage Growth: Key Considerations: Click here to open account and start trading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13234","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"luna","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/luna\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13234","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13234"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13234\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13234"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13234"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13234"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}