{"id":13142,"date":"2024-05-21T11:41:21","date_gmt":"2024-05-21T11:41:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.net\/?p=13142"},"modified":"2025-03-06T06:58:20","modified_gmt":"2025-03-06T06:58:20","slug":"forex-market-analysis-fed-speech-uk-cpi-impact","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/analysis\/13142\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Market Analysis: Fed Speech, UK CPI Impact"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">CURRENCIES<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>EURO (EUR\/USD, EUR\/GBP) technical analysis<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Fed speak to dominate today\u2019s scheduled event risks (Williams, Waller)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>EUR\/USD drifts lower in search of a catalyst<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>EUR\/GBP eyes support ahead of UK CPI print<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Fed Speak to Dominate Today\u2019s Scheduled Risk Events:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Quiet day on the economic calendar in a generally quiet week.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Euro PMI data on Thursday is the next notable event.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Last few days of the month feature US PCE and EU inflation data.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fed speakers continue to promote the idea of maintaining high interest rates to control inflation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Afternoon speakers: Fed Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Williams previously hinted at potential rate hikes if inflation does not improve; current focus shifts to timing rate cuts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>EUR\/USD Drifts Lower in Search of a Catalyst:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>EUR\/USD shows a slight downward trend after bouncing off channel resistance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Quiet week favors higher-yielding currencies like the dollar.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The pair reversed before reaching overbought conditions, similar to the trend in March.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Resistance at the upper limit of the ascending channel; support at channel support, 1.0800 psychological level, and 200-day SMA.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A catalyst may emerge towards the end of next week with US PCE and EU inflation data.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>EUR\/USD Key Data:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Mixed Sentiment: Data provided by clients are net short.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Daily Changes: Longs +15%, Shorts -1%, Open Interest +5%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Weekly Changes: Longs -10%, Shorts +8%, Open Interest 0%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>EUR\/GBP Eyes Support Ahead of UK CPI Print:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>EUR\/GBP started the year within a defined trading range, showing bullish momentum after breaking out.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bullish advance struggled, facing resistance at the 200-day SMA.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Current selling shows fatigue, with potential support from trendline.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>UK CPI data tomorrow could influence the pair&#8217;s direction.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Expectation of a notable move lower from the prior month.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Disappointment may lift sterling if data fails to meet low expectations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>April data might surprise the upside with price rises and index-linked increases.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If CPI meets or falls below consensus, EUR\/GBP may rise as markets anticipate a BoE cut sooner.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">STOCK MARKET<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Expectations for Nvidia\u2019s Earnings:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Traders are anticipating a significant move in Nvidia\u2019s shares post-earnings on Wednesday.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nvidia&#8217;s options suggest an 8.7% swing in either direction by Friday.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This implies a market cap change of $200 billion, exceeding the market cap of about 90% of S&amp;P 500 companies.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Nvidia&#8217;s Market Data:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Current Price: $947.80 +23.01 (2.49%) at close, $951.43 +3.63 (0.38%) pre-market.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Historical Comparison:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The implied move is less than the 16.4% jump after the last quarterly earnings.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Also lower than the average 12% move priced in for the last eight quarters.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Analyst Insights:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Chris Murphy, Susquehanna Financial Group: &#8220;Volatility and expectations were higher previously.&#8221;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nvidia\u2019s stock, up 87% this year, is crucial for the AI industry with a market value of $2.3 trillion.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Wall Street anticipates a strong quarterly report from Nvidia.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Broader Market Impact:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>AI-related gains are spreading to other sectors like power, commodities, and utilities.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>BofA strategists expect Nvidia to drive 9% of S&amp;P 500 earnings growth in the next 12 months, down from 37% over the last 12 months.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Options Market Sentiment:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Matt Amberson, ORATS: Implied volatility for out-of-the-money calls and puts is equal, indicating potential for both upside and downside moves.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders expect up moves to be as violent as down moves.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Projected Earnings:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Expected earnings: $5.59 per share.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Quarterly revenue: Expected to rise to $24.65 billion from $7.19 billion a year ago (LSEG data).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.net\/trade-now\/\" title=\"\">here<\/a> to open account and start trading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CURRENCIES EURO (EUR\/USD, EUR\/GBP) technical analysis: Fed Speak to Dominate Today\u2019s Scheduled Risk Events: EUR\/USD Drifts Lower in Search of a Catalyst: EUR\/USD Key Data: EUR\/GBP Eyes Support Ahead of UK CPI Print: STOCK MARKET Expectations for Nvidia\u2019s Earnings: Nvidia&#8217;s Market Data: Historical Comparison: Analyst Insights: Broader Market Impact: Options Market Sentiment: Projected Earnings: Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/analysis\/13142\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"luna","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/luna\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13142","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13142"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13142\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13142"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13142"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}