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Share Split Notification – June 3,2024

Dear Client,

Shares product NVIDIA is about to conduct a share split after the market closes on June 7, 2024. Starting from the market opening on June 10, 2024, NVIDIA expects to provide investor trading in divided contracts.

After the share split, please be aware of the following:

1. The trading volume of NVIDIA open positions will become 10 times the original lot size.

2. The “opening price” and “take-profit/stop-loss setting price” of NVIDIA’s positions will become 1/10 of the original price.

3. NVIDIA’s price at the opening of the market on June 10 is expected to be approximately 1/10 of the closing price on June 7.

4. After the market closes on June 7, all NVIDIA pending orders in real accounts will be cancelled.

5. After the market closes on June 7, all NVIDIA orders in the demo account will be cancelled, including open positions and pending orders.

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Dividend Adjustment Notice – June 3,2024

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Forex Market Analysis: US Jobs Data Update and ECB Rate Cut

CURRENCIES

Key Events and Predictions:

  • ECB Rate Decision:
    • ECB to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.
    • Possible timing of the next cut: Markets suggest September 12th or more likely October 17th.
    • Importance of ECB President Christine Lagarde’s signals on future cuts.
    • ECB post-decision press conference to be closely monitored.
  • US Jobs Data:
    • US jobs week concludes with NFPs on Friday.
    • Prior releases include JOLTS, ADP, and initial jobless claims.
    • Market’s view on US rate cuts pushed back due to high inflation.
    • Any weakening in the US job market may prompt re-pricing of US interest rate cuts.

Market Movements and Technical Analysis:

  • US Dollar (USD):
    • USD under pressure, nearing a two-month low.
    • USD index is testing the 200-day simple moving average.
    • A confirmed break lower could see USD trade below 104.00.
  • Gold:
    • Gold is vulnerable to a move lower.
    • Rise in US Treasury yields influencing gold prices.
    • Target level: $2,280/oz.
    • Friday’s NFPs will be critical for gold’s future performance.
  • Nasdaq 100:
    • Index turned lower, affected by performance in Magnificent Seven members.
    • Pullback from a sharp early sell-off.
    • Friday’s price action will be crucial for potential recovery.
    • Index remains vulnerable due to its concentration in a few mega-cap companies.

STOCK MARKET

Key Market Indices:

  • Nasdaq Composite (IXIC): Near flat over the past five trading sessions.
  • S&P 500 (GSPC): Rose less than 0.2%.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Down nearly 1%.

Market Performance in May:

  • Stocks stumbled at the end of May.
  • Investor enthusiasm for AI paused.
  • Concerns over Federal Reserve holding interest rates higher for longer.

Upcoming Labour Market Data:

May jobs report expected:

  • Forecast: 185,000 nonfarm payroll jobs added.
  • Unemployment Rate: Expected to hold steady at 3.9%.
  • April Data: 175,000 jobs added, unemployment at 3.9%.

Inflation Insights:

  • PCE Index Update:
    • April reading showed a 0.2% increase from the prior month.
    • Lowest monthly increase in 2024.
    • Economists noted it as better news on inflation compared to Q1.
    • Investors’ interest rate cut expectations remained unchanged.
  • Federal Reserve Outlook:
    • Officials require “greater confidence” in inflation’s decline before cutting rates.

June Futures Rollover Announcement (Updated) – May 31,2024

Dear Client,

New contracts will automatically be rolled over as follows:

Please note:

• The rollover will be automatic, and any existing open positions will remain open.

• Positions that are open on the expiration date will be adjusted via a rollover charge or credit to reflect the price difference between the expiring and new contracts.

• To avoid CFD rollovers, clients can choose to close any open CFD positions prior to the expiration date.

• Please ensure that all take-profit and stop-loss settings are adjusted before the rollover occurs.

• All internal transfers for accounts under the same name will be prohibited during the first and last 30 minutes of the trading hours on the rollover dates.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Is Warren Buffett lying about wealth and value investing?

Famous for his principles in value investing, mainstream media regard Warren Buffett as one of the most successful investors of all time. Buffett runs Berkshire Hathaway (Symbol: BRKB), one of the favourite stocks for many investors in the world. 

But there is an alternative school of thought challenging that Warren Buffett’s principles are “old school, obsolete, unrealistic and unsexy”. 

Buffett’s principles and his lifestyle 

Keywords of value investing principles are “long-term”, “patience” and “value”. Very much slow and steady. And people tend to forget that Buffett started investing when he was 10 years old, and he has since then been consistent until today. With an average ROI of 22% per year and compounding power, it is easy to see why Buffett ends up being one of the wealthiest people on the planet. 

Realistically though, how many people start investing at the age of 10? Probably no one else apart from Buffett himself. 

Modern day lifestyle, inflation and debt  

Consider an alternative scenario where Buffett only starts investing when he was 30, whereby he would have been drowned with student debts from pursuing a master’s degree or PhD. With a regular job, he is only left with some USD500 a month after deducting the necessities. At the same ROI of 22% per year, he would end up with 99.9% less even after a period of 30 years.  

There is just no way Buffett would be labelled as “the most successful investor”, even if he had been disciplined in his investment journey based on this alternative scenario. 

The truth is that most people belong to this alternative scenario rather than being born as an investment prodigy who would start at the age of 10.  

Add inflation into the picture and the ROI would be eroded to somewhere between 15-18% per year. Growing your wealth with a small capital and at such a speed is just not enough to keep up and live a decently happy life, much less to achieve financial freedom or becoming rich. 

Value investing with little money down does not make any sense 

Once again, consider yourself as an individual in the alternative scenario mentioned earlier. With just USD 500 spare cash a month and a long-only strategy, it is not easy to salvage a bad entry point, especially if you entered at the highest point of the market. It is also mentally painful if you decide to practice dollar cost averaging (DCA) when the market is crashing, as the more cash you invest, the more your portfolio will be bleeding. Sometimes it takes half a decade for the investment to break even. And the investor would already lose out to inflation too. For nothing. 

What a pain. 

An average joe with just USD 500 spare cash a month also must diversify. Playing the all-in strategy means you go big or go home. Buffett can do concentrated positions because he has the holding power, but truth is most people do not have such holding power. Choices are needed in certain occasions, and if one asset class is down, people do need another asset class to cover back the losses. And that is just how reality works. 

A lot of flexibility is what helps the average individuals 

This is where CFD trading becomes very appealing to many. Flexible, small and quick – just like a ninja.  

Make money no matter the market is bullish or bearish 

In CFDs, you can choose to bet if the market is going upwards or downwards. If the market is crashing, you can simply choose to follow the trend and short the market, making money when everyone else is bleeding.  

Fast in fast out equals healthy cashflow 

Most CFD traders practice intraday trading, and positions would be closed quickly to avoid overnight risks. Such practice also allows for healthy cashflow for a regular person. There would be no necessity to have your USD 500 cash stuck for extended periods of time.  

Lower barrier to entry with leverage 

With leverage of up to 500:1, CFDs also offer a lower barrier to entry – you only need to put up a small sum to gain full market exposure. 

With a starting amount of USD 500 and leverage of 500:1, you can open positions of up to USD250,000, which can potentially amplify your profits. With Warren Buffett’s methods, you will have to earn the spare cash of USD250,000 first, which is not really viable to many. 

Diversification of markets you can expose yourself to 

You can gain exposure to forex, commodities, bonds, shares, indices and ETFs via CFD trading. It is easy to hedge or diversify with CFDs. 

So, is Warren Buffett lying? 

Perhaps from his own perspective, Buffett is not lying per se. But his methods are unrealistic and cumbersome for anyone without USD 1,000,000 in cash lying around waiting to be invested.

Once a while, everyone would want a cup of latte or boba tea, travel to another country, celebrate little moments in life, and just live simple happiness. Life could feel meaningless if every single penny saved must be invested and had to be locked for at least half a decade. 

Start CFD trading with VT Markets 

With 1000+ assets being offered in the form of CFD trading, there is nothing to stop you from living the lifestyle you desire. Start your financial trading journey today! 

Open a live account 

Notification of Server Upgrade – May 30, 2024

Dear Client,

As part of our commitment to provide the most reliable service to our clients, there will be server maintenance this weekend.

Maintenance Hours :
1st of June 2024 (Saturday) 02:00 – 03:00 (GMT+3)

Please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for the specific maintenance completion and marketing opening time.

Please note that the following aspects might be affected during the maintenance:

1. The price quote and trading management will be temporarily disabled during the maintenance. You will not be able to open new positions, close open positions, or make any adjustments to the trades.

2. There might be a gap between the original price and the price after maintenance. The gaps between Pending Orders, Stop Loss and Take Profit will be filled at the market price once the maintenance is completed. It is suggested that you manage the account properly.

Thank you for your patience and understanding about this important initiative.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Notification of Trading Adjustment in Holiday – May 30, 2024

Dear Client,

Affected by international holidays, the trading hours of some VT Markets products will be adjusted. Please check the following link for the affected products:

Notification of Trading Adjustment in Holiday

Note: The dash sign (-) indicates normal trading hours.

Friendly Reminder:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Interest rate tug-of-war for central banks: Hawkish vs dovish

llustration of a hawk and dove in a fierce battle with the Federal Reserve building in the background, symbolizing the interest rate tug-of-war between hawkish and dovish stances of central banks. The image captures the dynamic struggle over economic policies, relevant to discussions on when central banks should adopt hawkish measures to counteract overheating economies with rising inflation and asset price bubbles.

Interest rates, interest rates. This seems to be everything everyone with any skin in today’s financial market ever cares about. With the whole world shifting uncomfortably in their seat whenever a rate hike review is due from the Federal Reserve, this almost obsessive focus on this seemingly arbitrary number feels a little crazy for the uninitiated.

After all, what can one little percentage point really do?

The concept of interest rates dates back to ancient Mesopotamia around 3,000 BC, where loans were made and interest was charged in the form of a commodity, like grain or silver. However, it was the ancient Greek philosopher Aristotle who first noted the idea of interest, albeit with skepticism, considering it unnatural.

Fast forward to the Renaissance, when financial minds like the Italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci began to formalise the mathematics behind interest rates, setting the stage for modern economic theories. We still use the Fibonacci retracement as a technical analysis tool today.

In the modern economy, interest rates are treated as the “cost” of borrowing money. They influence consumer spending, business investments, and overall economic growth. The power of interest rates lies in their ability to steer the economy. Whether it’s cooling down an overheating market or stimulating a sluggish one, this little number wields immense influence.

So how profound is the influence of interest rates on the value of any currency? We can observe how interest rates fluctuate, almost in tandem to market movement. Why then, one might wonder, is it necessary for central banks review interest rates periodically?

And why should you as a forex trader care? 

The role of central banks in managing the economy 

Central banks change interest rates primarily to manage economic stability. Changes in interest rates can determine if the economy growth of a country is sustainable, as this in turns control inflation and achieves a stable financial environment.  

In the context of monetary policy, central banks can have varying attitudes in approaching inflation and economic growth. When describing the tone and content of speeches by central bank, two terms are commonly used: 

Being hawkish cools down the economy

Hawkish policymakers prioritise keeping inflation low, often advocating for higher interest rates and tighter monetary policy.

Their main concern is that high inflation could destabilise the economy, so they tend to act quickly and decisively to raise rates or otherwise restrict the supply of money. 

Being dovish heats up the economy 

Dovish policymakers are more concerned with unemployment and supporting economic growth. It is common to see lower interest rates and a looser monetary policy to stimulate borrowing and spending.

Dovish policymakers are more willing to accept higher inflation if it means encouraging job creation and economic growth. 

When hawkish and when dovish? 

To put it simply, a sensible central bank may start taking a hawkish stance when it perceives that the economy is overheating. Common signs that an economy is overheating would include rising inflation and asset price bubbles. As raising interest rates can make borrowing more expensive, a hawkish stance can potentially cool off speculative investments and reducing the risk of a market bubble. 

On the other hand, central banks tend to adopt a dovish stance when it felt the need to stimulate the economy. Recession periods, high unemployment rates and financial crises are the usual triggers. For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, central banks like the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) slashed interest rates to near-zero levels and implementing quantitative easing to support their economies. 

A game of tug-of-war 

Whichever stance taken by a central bank, change is the only constant in any economy. This is the reason why central banks cannot go with a one-way street approach as it pleases, but rather review its approach periodically to tighten and loosen the monetary policy like a game of tug-of-war depending on the economy status at the given material time. 

Can interest rate solve all economic problems? 

It depends. While interest rates are key drivers in forex markets, the impact isn’t always straightforward. Delays in economic response, high existing debt and global economic conditions can lessen the effectiveness of rate changes.

Also, when rates are near zero, traditional rate cuts become less effective. Interest rates are also closely tied to other economic indicators like employment rates, inflation and GDP growth.  

As such, understanding how interest rates relate to these factors can provide deeper insights into potential currency movements. For forex traders, understanding and anticipating interest rate changes is essential for those who would like to trade on news, which can be very swift and lucrative. 

Trading opportunities arising from changing interest rates 

Interest rates are closely tied to other economic indicators like employment rates, inflation and GDP growth. Understanding how interest rates relate to these factors can provide deeper insights into potential currency movements.

Further, announcements regarding interest rate changes are typically times of high volatility in forex markets, quite like the nature of news trading. Traders can capitalise on this volatility if they can predict the direction of the market movement following an interest rate change. 

What if the central bank makes a poor decision? 

In short, it can turn into a situation of adding oil to fire. Not only there would be long-term economic challenges for the country, but everything from the stability of the currency to general living standards would be impacted. 

One of the classic examples would be Turkey and one of the biggest losers in the currency market, the Turkish Lira (TRY).  

Under the administration of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has lowered interest rates despite soaring inflation. President Erdoğan has publicly advocated for lower interest rates, arguing that it helps to foster economic growth. 

The Turkish lira (TRY) has seen a sharp fall since 2018, depreciating between 80% to 90% against major currencies such as the US Dollar (USD), the Euros (EUR), Pound Sterling (GBP) and Japanese Yen (JPY). Foreign investors are spooked, and the purchasing power of Turkish people practically just evaporated into thin air.  

Opportunities for forex traders  

With an obvious trend from the CRBT, USDTRY and EURTRY are the most traded exotic currency pairs as traders can simply choose to short TRY.

Combined with the right trading strategy, technical analysis and risk management, both pairs can present a good trade setup for traders to seize some profits. 

Open a live account 

Forex Market Analysis: Nvidia Surges and Dollar Remains Stable

CURRENCIES

Key Highlights:

  • Nvidia’s stock surged by 7% overnight, boosting its market cap to over $2.8 trillion, making it the third-largest company globally.
  • The rally places Nvidia close to Apple ($2.9 trillion) and Microsoft ($3.2 trillion).
  • Nvidia’s AI chips are crucial for advanced AI applications, driving high demand and significant stock price increases.
  • Since surpassing the $500 mark at the start of 2024, Nvidia has seen rapid gains, recovering quickly from a late-March/early-April dip.
  • Nvidia holds a 7.2% weighting in the Nasdaq 100, and its recent rally pushed the tech index to a new high.

US Dollar and Inflation:

  • The US dollar is stable as traders await Friday’s Core PCE inflation data.
  • US inflation remains high, impacting rate cut expectations for 2024, now with only one 25 basis point cut anticipated.
  • Minneapolis Fed Reserve President Neel Kashkari stated that the central bank should wait for several months of positive inflation data before considering rate cuts, emphasizing the Fed’s focus on reducing inflation.

US Dollar Index:

  • The US Dollar Index shows a slight downside bias.
  • Initial support levels are 104.44 (200-dsma) and 104.37 (38.2% Fibonacci Retracement).

STOCK MARKET

Key Highlights:

  • The stock market’s most critical driver, earnings outlook, continues to improve.
  • S&P 500 earnings grew 6% in Q1 2024 compared to the previous year, with a 10% growth excluding Bristol Myers-Squibb’s poor performance.
  • Future earnings estimates are rising: 2024 earnings growth forecast increased to 11.4% from 10.9% (as of April 5), and 2025 estimates up to 14.2% from 11.6%.

Strategist Insights:

  • Jonathan Golub, UBS Investment Bank: Raised year-end S&P 500 target to 5,600 from 5,400 due to stronger earnings.
  • Second-quarter earnings estimates are robust, supporting further market upside.

Earnings Growth:

  • S&P 500 earnings show resilience and growth across various sectors.
  • “Mega-Cap Growth and Tech” stocks grew about 39% year-over-year, maintaining strong performance.
  • Earnings for Cyclicals and Defensives grew 7.5% in Q1 2024, indicating healthy growth.

Sector Performance:

  • Nvidia contributed 37% to the S&P 500’s earnings growth over the past year, expected to drop to 9% over the next 12 months.
  • Broader market participation expected with contributions from power, commodities, and utilities.

Market Dynamics:

  • Cost-cutting has driven recent earnings growth; however, increased demand and revenue growth are anticipated to take over.
  • Industrial sector companies signal a recovery in demand for the second half of the year, expected to improve operating leverage and margins.

Investor Trends:

  • Charles Schwab’s Kevin Gordon emphasizes that revenue beats outperformed earnings beats in Q1 2024, indicating market preference for genuine demand-driven growth over cost-cutting.

Click here to open an account and start trading.

Dividend Adjustment Notice – May 29, 2024

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

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